Sunday, February 26, 2006

Why Number Five in the East is Really a Beast (originally posted 2/20/2006)

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Ever the underdog, always last in the standings, and constantly brushed off by AL East. It must suck to be a Devil Ray.
But wait. Something happened recently that might change our minds for ever for this mighty team with a tiny payroll ($38 million- 29th in the majors above the Royals). All of a sudden, they're starting lineup looks capable of trampling any pitching in the majors, never mind those of their eastern rivals. They have perhaps the deepest and most talented outfield in the majors. They have both speed and power in their infield. Their pitching - well, that may be calls for questioning, but what more can you ask of this team?
In 2005, five Devil Rays made more than $1 million, and only two - Aubrey Huff and Julio Lugo - made more than $2 million. To put that in comparison, in 2005 TWENTY Red Sox made more than $1 million, and the top two earners - Manny Ramirez and Curt Schilling - made $19.8 million and $14.5 million, respectively. Now, the Sox held a 12-6 record over the Rays in '05, but what about that giant goldmine in New York? The Yankees have far-and-away the highest payroll in baseball ($205 million in '05; nearly twice that of the #2 Red Sox) yet the Devil Rays, whose players made roughly one fifth the money that players in the Bronx made, beat the Yanks in the season series, going 8-7 against the Bombers.
This is a team that has always been pesky against their competitors in the East, and '06 will finally be their chance to prove that they can do that throughout baseball. I'm not predicting any October action for the Rays this season, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if the Rays, at the very least, move up to #4 in the division, considering the direction Baltimore has taken their club (more on that in an upcoming post).
Let's look at that sparkling young outfield:
Carl Crawford - Simply put, this left fielder has it all. He's improved his offense every year that he's been in the majors. He's fully capable of batting leadoff, second, and even third - a slot reserved for the most versatile hitter on the squad, someone who can both knock baserunners in and get on base for the clean-up hitter. In '05 he batted .301 (12th in the AL), with 15 homers, 15 triples, and a sizeable 46 stolen bases (ps, that's only five fewer nabs than the entire Sox staff had last year combined).
Rocco Baldelli - He missed all of last season with injuries to his elbow and knee, but if he can come back healthy and productive, the Ray's will have one of the best centerfielders in the game, and a fast improving offensive force on their hands. Given the fact that the front office signed him to a multi-year deal this offseason despite missing all of 2005, the organization is banking on Rocco returning to form in '06. By the way, Baldelli has one of the most feared arms in the outfield, something that has cost the Sox a run or two in the past.
Aubrey Huff - The right fielder/first baseman had an off-year last season, batting .261 with 22 homeruns and 92 RBI (I use the term "off-year" somewhat loosely here). In 2003 Huff smashed his way to a .311 average, 34 homers and 107 RBI. He's perfectly capable of coming back in '06, giving the Rays a very powerful number 3 or 4 hitter to work with. Huff (who was rumored to be included in a few deals this offseason - including one that would have landed him Boston) is known to be a Red Sox killer, so watch for him to keep up his reputation this season.
Johnny Gomes - Gomes will play as the DH on most nights, but he is capable of playing in the outfield as well. Last year the rookie impressed the organization when, in just 348 at bats, he smashed 21 homeruns, knocked in 54 runs and maintained a .281 average. He is widely considered to be the sparkplug that helped the Rays go on a torrid streak in the second half of '05.
Joey Gathright - The fastest runner in the major leagues. End of story. If he was an everyday player he would collect 60-70 stolen bases, easy. Last season he nabbed 20 in only 203 at bats. In '05 he'll remain on the bench, but expect him to spell Baldelli in center in case of injury or fatigue. He's been the talk of the trade block all offseason, but I expect him to be around at least for the first half of '06.
Damon Hollins - He was Rookie of the Month back in May. By the end of the season he'd hit .249 with 13 long balls and 46 RBI in 342 at bats. A very capable fifth outfielder that could have a breakout season if he can improve his average a little.
Delmon Young - If you ask him (and most player development people in the majors), this five-tool player is ready for the big leagues. If injury or poor performance land him on the 25-man roster by season's end, he'll get the chance to prove himself. If, in fact, new manager Joe Maddon finds around 300 at bats for the youngster, he'll be a surefire candidate for Rookie of the Year. That's a lot of "ifs," but all it adds up to is outfield depth for Tampa Bay.
That, people, is one of the deepest outfields in the majors, and certainly a lot more talkented than even some division rivals'. In the middle infield, they have the talented and capable Julio Lugo at short and Jorge Cantu at second. The corner infield positions will be filled by strong defenders that have potential at the plate in Sean Burroughs (third) and Travis Lee (first). And behind the plate the Rays feature Toby Hall, who ranked third in the AL last season by throwing out 37.8 percent of the opposing baserunners. He's not a huge offensive force, but he hits for average and will knock some guys in.
Now, the pitching staff is a question mark, but starter Scott Kazmir is capable of putting up a Cy Young-worthy season. If the rest of the staff can keep up, you might see more than just a gritty little team in '06. You might see a real contender.

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