Red Sox v. Yankees II: Corner Infield

First and third base, for most major league teams, are positions out which managers expect to get production first, defense second. That's not to say that defense at these positions is an afterthought, but since they're not as demanding as, say, the middle infield, it's reasonable to expect players at first and third to focus more on the plate than on the field. That said, I'd like to take a look at the men in the corners in Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, and we'll decide which team is going to get the most production out of those positions. I'll begin with the most probable starters at those positions and then talk a little bit about the bench players on each team for the corner infield.

Third Base:
Gone is fan-favorite Bill Meuller from Boston; he'll be joining former Red Sox teammates Derek Lowe and Nomar Garciaparra along with manager Grady Little with the Las Angeles Dodgers. He takes with him highly underrated defense and clutch hitting. His replacement, Mike Lowell, has nice potential at the plate but is recovering from an off-year in '05, in which he hit .236 with 8 homeruns and 58 RBI. Compare that to his '04 numbers (.297 - 27 - 85), and perhaps you'll see that the Sox may have gotten a deal when they acquired Lowell along with Josh Beckett and Guillermo Mota (who was later spun to Cleveland in the Coco Crisp deal) for four minor leaguers. He also won a Gold Glove last season, his first, so if he can improve his hitting (very probable given the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway) Boston should boast of a very solid third baseman in '06.
Meanwhile New York has the reigning American League MVP in their hot corner. Alex Rodriguez challenged for the triple crown in '05, hitting .321 (second, behind Texas shortstop Michael Young) with a league-leading 48 homeruns, and 130 RBI (fourth in the league behind Boston's David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez and Texas' Mark Texeira). Along the way he silenced all those critics in New York who said he couldn't handle the pressure. He's also one season removed from a Gold Glove award, so clearly he can play his position (even though he was made famous at shortstop).

First Base:
Kevin Youkilis will finally get the chance to prove himself on a regular basis this season (all it took was three years and a position switch to do it)- partly because the Sox like his polished swing and partly because he's out of options and they don't have the choice of shuttling him back to Pawtucket to make room on the active roster anymore. Offensively Youkilis should be pretty productive- at the very least he'll put up better numbers than that other first-base Kevin (who will now provide humor in the clubhouse and at the plate in Baltimore). His biggest plus at the plate is his ability to get on base. In the last two seasons Youkilis combined for just 287 at bats with the sox, but he maintained a .376 on-base percentage. The Sox covet those kind of stats. He also projects to hit 20+ homers in regular at bats, which will be another nice improvement over the power-starved Millar. Defense is a question; Youkilis came up as a third baseman, but he's been practicing at first since last spring and he can't be any worse than Millar in that respect, either. An added plus: his experience at third base means that he can spell Lowell and give lefty JT Snow some starts at first at the same time.
I'll admit, I was one of the many that counted Jason Giambi out after the 2004 season. The former MVP posted terrible numbers, suffered from numerous injuries, and was neck-deep in a steroid scandal that threatened his entire career. Fast-forward to '05 (specifically June '05 and beyond) and suddenly Giambi is back to where the Yankees want him to be and on his way to becoming the American League Comeback Player of the Year. After terrible months of April and May and the threat of being sent back to the minor leagues, Giambi gritted his teeth and went crazy, never looking back until by the end of the season he had posted a .271 average with 32 homeruns (only three of which he had knocked before May 10) and 87 RBI. If he can maintain that momentum into '06, the Yankees will have a hitter in the number six slot of their lineup that would easily be number 3 or 4 elsewhere.

Bench:
J.T. Snow will fill the role in '06 that John Olerud filled last season; namely, he'll be a late inning defensive replacement and get some starts against right-handed pitching. Like Olerud, Snow is known for his spectacular defense at first. Unlike Olerud, Snow never has and never will challenge for a batting title. Last year with the Giants (where he was more of an everyday player than he will be in Boston) he hit .275 with 4 homeruns and 40 RBI. Those numbers are sure to go down as does the number of at bats he gets. The Sox are banking on his defensive prowess (he won six consequtive Gold Gloves between 1995 and 2000) to make up for his offense.
You can also expect slugger David Ortiz to get some starts at first, especially as the Sox move into interleague play mid-season. I don't need to tell you how much of an offensive force Big Papi is (and I plan to do so in my DH section anyway) but I'll just say that last season Ortiz led the league (actually, he led the entire MLB) in RBI with 148, and he placed second in long balls with 47. He's even proven to have a pretty strong arm when he plays defense, but he's been having trouble catching fly balls this spring, according to a chuckling Willie Harris.
In New York, expect to see Andy Phillips give Giambi a break or two over at first. He had a poor showing in his 27 games with the big club last year, but in 75 games at triple-A Columbus, Phillips hit .300 with 22 homeruns and 54 RBI. If Joe Torre can somehow find him some regular at-bats, his major league numbers should definitely improve.
Meanwhile, the Yankees brought back Miguel Cairo to help man the left side of the infield. After his 2004 Yankee season, Cairo went across town to the Mets and batted .251 with 2 homeruns and 19 RBI in 327 at-bats. Those are hardly Yankee caliber numbers, and considering the durability of Rodriguez and shortstop Derek Jeter, don't expect to see Cairo very often in '06.

And the winner is: Do I even need to say? The Yankees are sure to outblast the Sox once again at their corner positions. Unless both Rodriguez and Giambi get hit by busses or some other freak injury affects their performance, the two of them should combine for around 85 homeruns and 225 RBI. The Sox - if they're lucky - will get 45 homers and 140 RBI out of their starters.

Rookie Boxer Run

I found this picture on Boston.com (link at right). It's hard to tell from just their tooties, but after studying this picture for a little while [;-)] I've decided that, from left to right (the naked ones), are Jonathan Papelbon, Craig Breslow, Edgar Martinez, Jamie Vermilyea, and Jon Lester. If I'm wrong, let me know. Anyway they're being watched by Manny Delcarmen (left) and Abe Alvarez (right) and that could be Jimmy Serrano in the middle of the clothed guys, but it's a little too blurry to be sure.

Why Number Five in the East is Really a Beast (originally posted 2/20/2006)

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Ever the underdog, always last in the standings, and constantly brushed off by AL East. It must suck to be a Devil Ray.
But wait. Something happened recently that might change our minds for ever for this mighty team with a tiny payroll ($38 million- 29th in the majors above the Royals). All of a sudden, they're starting lineup looks capable of trampling any pitching in the majors, never mind those of their eastern rivals. They have perhaps the deepest and most talented outfield in the majors. They have both speed and power in their infield. Their pitching - well, that may be calls for questioning, but what more can you ask of this team?
In 2005, five Devil Rays made more than $1 million, and only two - Aubrey Huff and Julio Lugo - made more than $2 million. To put that in comparison, in 2005 TWENTY Red Sox made more than $1 million, and the top two earners - Manny Ramirez and Curt Schilling - made $19.8 million and $14.5 million, respectively. Now, the Sox held a 12-6 record over the Rays in '05, but what about that giant goldmine in New York? The Yankees have far-and-away the highest payroll in baseball ($205 million in '05; nearly twice that of the #2 Red Sox) yet the Devil Rays, whose players made roughly one fifth the money that players in the Bronx made, beat the Yanks in the season series, going 8-7 against the Bombers.
This is a team that has always been pesky against their competitors in the East, and '06 will finally be their chance to prove that they can do that throughout baseball. I'm not predicting any October action for the Rays this season, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if the Rays, at the very least, move up to #4 in the division, considering the direction Baltimore has taken their club (more on that in an upcoming post).
Let's look at that sparkling young outfield:
Carl Crawford - Simply put, this left fielder has it all. He's improved his offense every year that he's been in the majors. He's fully capable of batting leadoff, second, and even third - a slot reserved for the most versatile hitter on the squad, someone who can both knock baserunners in and get on base for the clean-up hitter. In '05 he batted .301 (12th in the AL), with 15 homers, 15 triples, and a sizeable 46 stolen bases (ps, that's only five fewer nabs than the entire Sox staff had last year combined).
Rocco Baldelli - He missed all of last season with injuries to his elbow and knee, but if he can come back healthy and productive, the Ray's will have one of the best centerfielders in the game, and a fast improving offensive force on their hands. Given the fact that the front office signed him to a multi-year deal this offseason despite missing all of 2005, the organization is banking on Rocco returning to form in '06. By the way, Baldelli has one of the most feared arms in the outfield, something that has cost the Sox a run or two in the past.
Aubrey Huff - The right fielder/first baseman had an off-year last season, batting .261 with 22 homeruns and 92 RBI (I use the term "off-year" somewhat loosely here). In 2003 Huff smashed his way to a .311 average, 34 homers and 107 RBI. He's perfectly capable of coming back in '06, giving the Rays a very powerful number 3 or 4 hitter to work with. Huff (who was rumored to be included in a few deals this offseason - including one that would have landed him Boston) is known to be a Red Sox killer, so watch for him to keep up his reputation this season.
Johnny Gomes - Gomes will play as the DH on most nights, but he is capable of playing in the outfield as well. Last year the rookie impressed the organization when, in just 348 at bats, he smashed 21 homeruns, knocked in 54 runs and maintained a .281 average. He is widely considered to be the sparkplug that helped the Rays go on a torrid streak in the second half of '05.
Joey Gathright - The fastest runner in the major leagues. End of story. If he was an everyday player he would collect 60-70 stolen bases, easy. Last season he nabbed 20 in only 203 at bats. In '05 he'll remain on the bench, but expect him to spell Baldelli in center in case of injury or fatigue. He's been the talk of the trade block all offseason, but I expect him to be around at least for the first half of '06.
Damon Hollins - He was Rookie of the Month back in May. By the end of the season he'd hit .249 with 13 long balls and 46 RBI in 342 at bats. A very capable fifth outfielder that could have a breakout season if he can improve his average a little.
Delmon Young - If you ask him (and most player development people in the majors), this five-tool player is ready for the big leagues. If injury or poor performance land him on the 25-man roster by season's end, he'll get the chance to prove himself. If, in fact, new manager Joe Maddon finds around 300 at bats for the youngster, he'll be a surefire candidate for Rookie of the Year. That's a lot of "ifs," but all it adds up to is outfield depth for Tampa Bay.
That, people, is one of the deepest outfields in the majors, and certainly a lot more talkented than even some division rivals'. In the middle infield, they have the talented and capable Julio Lugo at short and Jorge Cantu at second. The corner infield positions will be filled by strong defenders that have potential at the plate in Sean Burroughs (third) and Travis Lee (first). And behind the plate the Rays feature Toby Hall, who ranked third in the AL last season by throwing out 37.8 percent of the opposing baserunners. He's not a huge offensive force, but he hits for average and will knock some guys in.
Now, the pitching staff is a question mark, but starter Scott Kazmir is capable of putting up a Cy Young-worthy season. If the rest of the staff can keep up, you might see more than just a gritty little team in '06. You might see a real contender.

Red Sox v. Yankees I: Pitching Rotation (originally posted 2/15/2006)

One thing that I'm fond of doing throughout the season is making comparisons between AL East rivals. I'll start with an analysis of the starting rotations of the Yankees and the Red Sox. I touched on this a bit in my last post, but here I'll go into a bit more detail and analyze each pitcher.
Each of these teams is going into the 2006 season with fairly deep rotations. In fact, as of this post both teams have seven viable starters to fill five spots. For the purposes of this entry, I'll begin with the ace of each team and move down what I project to be the five-man rotation; the final two spots will be referred to as the wildcards. Bear in mind that this is my own opinion on what the rotations of these teams will look like in '06, and by April the situation might be completely different.

ACE (#1 Starter): The Yankees will return veteran Randy Johnson to the top of their rotation in '06. The southpaw had an "off" year in '05, going 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 211 strikeouts. He also led Yank's starters with 225.2 innings pitched. That's a career season for most pitchers, but the Yankees hope that Johnson will show glimmers of '02 in '06. That season with the Diamondbacks, Johnson had a remarkable 24-5 record, sparkling 2.32 ERA and a ridiculous 334 strikeouts. To me, the Big Unit is sitting on the edge of a knife, and one of two things can happen as a result. Either he will pull an Alex Rodriguez and have a huge comeback in his second year in pinstripes, or we will see that the dropoff in his numbers has more to do with his age than with his location. The 42 year old is ancient by MLB standards, and it won't help that his personal catcher John Flaherty with be catching knuckleballs in Boston this season. If Johnson can overcome the pressurized situation in Yankees Stadium, then New York looks to have the most dominant left-hander in the game starting every fifth night.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have two top-of-the-rotation guys to fill the role of ace. However, assuming that he can return to 2004 form, I'm projecting Curt Schilling as the true #1 man in this squad. Yes, he's coming off a horrendous, injury marred 2005 campaign in which he went 8-8 with a huge 5.69 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 93.1 innings pitched. Yes he's 39 years old and a huge comeback will be much tougher at that age. But no pitcher in the major leagues has a better work ethic than Schil, and if he says he's ready to be our ace again, I believe him. History tells us that Schilling is pretty good at bouncing back. In 2002 the big righty went 23-7 with a 3.23 ERA alongside his buddy and now rival Johnson with Arizona. The next year Schilling was limited to 168 innings and came out with a 8-9 record. Then came 2004, that magical year in Red Sox Nation and Curt's big comeback, when he went 21-6-3.26-203 in 226.2 innings. If he stays true to his past, following his poor 2005 season Schilling should be poised to win another 20 games for the Sox this year.

#2 Starter: Formally the ace of the Yankees pitching staff, Mike Mussina was demoted with the acquisition of the Big Unit. Known to be one of the most durable pitchers in baseball as of two years ago, Mussina has failed to reach 200 innings in each of the last two seasons. Age (he's 37) and the health of his arm will be a factor this season. In 2005 Mussina went 13-8-4.41-142 in 179.2 innings. If he can overcome the odds, however, he figures to be a big part of the rotation in New York.
The Sox also have an potential ace filling their #2 slot. Acquired in a huge trade with the Marlins for top prospect Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett is a young fireballer with a high ceiling that has already proven himself at the major league level. In 2003 Beckett was the MVP of a young World Series squad that defeated that fearsome Yankees. Last season Beckett went 15-8 with a 3.37 ERA and 166 strikeouts in 178.2 innings. That last number is what has some in Boston worried - he has continually suffered problems with blisters and last season he missed his last few starts because of a sore shoulder. But the medical staff in Boston would lead us to believe that they can handle any blister this side of Derek Lowe, and that the shoulder issue was more precautionary than neccesary. Regardless, Beckett is coming into a situation where the pressure won't be all on him, given the Sox's deep pitching staff, and if he lives up to his potential he'll be Terry Francona's new best friend.

#3 Starter: Here's where the Yankees begin to fall apart a little bit - the bottom half of their rotation. I'm projecting starter number three this year to be Chien Ming Wang, who in his rookie campaign last year went 8-5-4.02-47 in 17 starts (116.1 innings). Yes, those are impressive numbers for a rookie, but who knows if Wang can keep that up in his sophomore showing? Also, given the fact that Wang was indeed the Yankee's third best starter in '05 and he only made 17 starts, that says a lot for a rotation that returns each of its components from last year.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, boast of a number three man that went 13-6-4.57-146 in 191 innings last year. Naysayers will point to Matt Clement's sub-par second half (only 4 of his 13 wins came after the All-Star break), but for goodness sake's the man got his head caved in by a line drive! You come back and post even four wins after that! Still, Clement has a history of sputtering later in the season, but he definitely has the potential to win 17 games in '05 if he can finally prove everyone wrong about his second-half performances. Watch closely though, because with all the trade rumors floating around this winter, we might not even see Clement in Boston for very much longer.

#4 Starter: Carl Pavano was one of the Yankee's prized free agent acquistion last offseason. Remember Carl-lapalooza? The nationwide tour-de-force Pavano took, shopping himself to various contending teams (including the Red Sox)? Well, the Yankees won his huge contract, but in return all they got was a 4-6 record, 4.77 ERA, 56 strikeouts, and months on the disabled list. Can Pavano make a comeback in '06? If so, the Yankees will feature a #4 man that went 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA and 139 strikeouts for the Marlins in '04. If not, then perhaps that was $40 million they should have spent elsewhere.
The Red Sox look to start veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in the number four slot this season. As evidenced by the nearly unlimited contract the front office signed Wakefield to during the '05 season, this is a man the team can count on. Emerging as the ace of last year's staff, Wakefield went 16-12 with a 4.15 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 225.1 innings. He also led the squad with three complete games. The thing about Wakefield is that his knuckleball doesn't have the devastating affect on his shoulder that a hard-thrower's fastball does. Therefore, age is hardly a factor for Tim, and you can expect him to continue baffling hitters with his knuckler in '06. One thing to watch for: Doug Mirabelli, Wakefield's personal catcher of the last four years, will be joining the battery in San Diego in '06. His replacement, John Flaherty, is known for his defensive prowess but may not be the offensive force that Mirabelli was during Wakefield's starts.

#5 Starter: Shawn Chacon had a pretty crazy season in '05. After starting out 1-7 with the Colorado Rockies, Chacon joined the Yankees and went 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA in 79 innings. Many speculate that his improvement can solely be attributed to the change of leagues and batters' unfamiliarity with his style. The Yanks are hoping that it was no fluke, and the he can maintain his momentum in '06. If so, they'll have a quality #5 man for the first time in years; if not, we may not see Chacon in the rotation for very long, as Jaret Wright and Aaron Small will be waiting in the wings to take over for him.
The Red Sox will have a sore time trying to choose their number five guy for '06. That's because Bronson Arroyo has already proven himself capable of posting 14 wins, yet Jonathan Papelbon is a pitcher with a much higher ceiling than Arroyo. After all the dust from spring training has cleared, however, I predict you'll see Arroyo back in his familiar number five slot this season. In 2005 Rockin' Bronson went 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 205.1 innings. Arroyo is the type of pitcher that will shutdown lineups for entire games; he nearly pitched a no-hitter early last season and in 2003 he hurled a perfect game for triple-A Pawtucket. Don't be surprised if he makes baseball history this season. Arroyo has proven himself effective out of the bullpen, and if he does make that move you can expect him to be the best long-reliever on the staff.

The Wildcards: Aaron Small put together perhaps the most impressive season of any Yankee's starter last season. A reliever by trade, Small started nine games in New York, pitched in fifteen, and posted a 10-0 record, including a complete game. In 76 innings Small gathered 37 strikeouts and a 3.20 ERA - second only to Chacon in pitchers with nine or more starts. But because he has more experience out of the bullpen, expect him to start the season there and be pulled into the rotation in the event of injury or poor performance. Jaret Wright, meanwhile, is a starter by trade that is expected to remain in the bullpen as a long reliever in '06. The Yankees signed Wright as their fifth starter for a pretty big contract prior to the 2005 season, but the right hander failed to return on their investment, battling injuries and posting a 5-5 record, 6.08 ERA, and 34 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Wright projects to be added insurance for a rotation that is historically prone to injury.
During the '05-'06 offseason, veteran left hander David Wells requested a trade to a west coast team, where he can be closer to home and play in warmer conditions. So far, the Sox have not found a suitable trade for Wells, but in all likelyhood they'll manage something before the end of spring training. If they decide to keep Wells, they'll have one of the best big-game pitchers in the game, a man who went 15-7 last season, with a 4.45 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 184 innings. Like Arroyo, Wells is the type of pitcher that can destory a lineup for an entire game. He has a perfect game in his career and I wouldn't be surprised if he nails another if he doesn't retire first. The other Wildcard in the Sox rotation this season will be Jonathan Papelbon. Last year the rookie impressed the entire organization when he appeared in 17 games (three starts) and posted a 3-1 record, 2.65 ERA, and 35 strikeouts in just 34 innings. He figures to be an extremely valuable piece of the bullpen puzzle, and if anyone in the rotation is sidelined by injury, expect him to prove that he's meant to be a starter.

And the winner is: The Red Sox. They have more of a proven staff coming into the season and have had fewer injury problems than the Yankees. Both clubs are stacked though, and you can expect some great pitcher's duels between the division rivals.

The Rocket Factor: The Astros this season didn't offer Roger Clemens arbitration, effectively making the Rocket a free agent and disqualifying Houston from signing him until May 1. Though Clemens may very well wait that long to make his season debut and stay in his hometown, he has suggested that there are three other teams he would consider signing with: the Rangers, the Yankees, and the Red Sox. Should either of the division rivals land him with a contract, then you can pretty much call the division theirs. Clemens brings with him a career 341-172 record, 3.12 ERA, and a whopping 4502 strikeouts. Should he sign with the Sox, with one win he will surpass Cy Young's all time win record with the team. The Sox seem to be the team most interested in signing Clemens, but frontrunners at this time appear to be the two Texas teams, allowing Clemens to stay close to home and keep a close eye on his son (who is a catcher in the Astro's organization).

First Post, Red Sox Preview (originally posted 2/14/2006)

Here's my first post, just trying things out. I guess I'll lay out my most basic predictions for what I think is going to happen this season. Essentially, this will be the first season in years that the Red Sox will be feeling the heat from two teams in the AL East instead of just one; this offseason, the Blue Jays have dramatically improve their club with the signings of BJ Ryan, A.J. Burnett, and Benjie Molina and trades for Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay. At the same time, the Yankees - relatively quiet for most of the offseason - needed only one move to just about crush the Sox's chances of taking the AL East title this season: the free agent signing of Johnny Damon. Not only does this move dramatically improve the Yankee's lineup by giving them a true leadoff hitter and allowing Jeter to settle into his more natural #2 spot, but it damages the Sox by taking that element out of their game; Coco Crisp (Damon's replacement at center and leadoff), while talented, batted behind Grady Sizemore in the Indians lineup last season, and has an aggressive style at the plate that may not suit the Red Sox lead-off slot very well.

One thing the Red Sox can boast of is strong, deep pitching. Deeper, even, than the Yankees stacked staff. The Yank's squad may have bigger names, but there are far more questions in the Yankee's starting rotation - will Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina stand the test of time? Can Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano stay healthy all season? Can Shawn Chacon - who went 1-7 with the Rockies in the first part of '05 - maintain the momentum he gained when he joined New york, going 7-3 in the second half? The only two questions about the Red Sox starters will be 1) Can Curt Schilling stay healthy? and, 2) Will Terry Francona ever be able to figure out who gets sent to the 'pen?

Ok, maybe there are actually 2.5 questions. There is still the issue of Josh Beckett's sore shoulder and blister problem. However, I count this as only half a problem because he's a young pitcher coming into his prime with the Red Sox; he's proven he can do big things and this season he will suffer almost zero pressure within the deep Sox rotation. He's all upside. Even if he doesn't reach 200 innings, 165 Beckett-esque innings will be worth it (not to mention the fact that it will give Jonathan Papelbon a few starts to prove himself during).

So, the Sox might give their division rivals some trouble at the plate, but the Yankee's offense will blow the Sox away. And a spending spree in Toronto, an ever-pesty Oriole squad, and a Devil Ray's team that has the potential to surprise us all and take the Wild Card, the Red Sox are sure to have their share of problems making it to the playoffs in '06.But, after all of that, I still have to say that the Red Sox will once again go against the odds and take it all. If I didn't say that, I wouldn't be a true Sox fan.

-Chris

P.S. -> This blog will not only be my opinions about the Red Sox. They're my favorite team, so of course my first post had to focus of them, but I fully intend to write about all of MLB and baseball in general (including the upcoming World Baseball Classic). Here's what you'll find in this blog, in order from least common: Amateur Baseball, International Baseball, Professional Baseball, Major-League Baseball, MLB-American League, AL East, Boston Red Sox.