Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Red Sox v. Yankees II: Corner Infield

First and third base, for most major league teams, are positions out which managers expect to get production first, defense second. That's not to say that defense at these positions is an afterthought, but since they're not as demanding as, say, the middle infield, it's reasonable to expect players at first and third to focus more on the plate than on the field. That said, I'd like to take a look at the men in the corners in Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, and we'll decide which team is going to get the most production out of those positions. I'll begin with the most probable starters at those positions and then talk a little bit about the bench players on each team for the corner infield.

Third Base:
Gone is fan-favorite Bill Meuller from Boston; he'll be joining former Red Sox teammates Derek Lowe and Nomar Garciaparra along with manager Grady Little with the Las Angeles Dodgers. He takes with him highly underrated defense and clutch hitting. His replacement, Mike Lowell, has nice potential at the plate but is recovering from an off-year in '05, in which he hit .236 with 8 homeruns and 58 RBI. Compare that to his '04 numbers (.297 - 27 - 85), and perhaps you'll see that the Sox may have gotten a deal when they acquired Lowell along with Josh Beckett and Guillermo Mota (who was later spun to Cleveland in the Coco Crisp deal) for four minor leaguers. He also won a Gold Glove last season, his first, so if he can improve his hitting (very probable given the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway) Boston should boast of a very solid third baseman in '06.
Meanwhile New York has the reigning American League MVP in their hot corner. Alex Rodriguez challenged for the triple crown in '05, hitting .321 (second, behind Texas shortstop Michael Young) with a league-leading 48 homeruns, and 130 RBI (fourth in the league behind Boston's David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez and Texas' Mark Texeira). Along the way he silenced all those critics in New York who said he couldn't handle the pressure. He's also one season removed from a Gold Glove award, so clearly he can play his position (even though he was made famous at shortstop).

First Base:
Kevin Youkilis will finally get the chance to prove himself on a regular basis this season (all it took was three years and a position switch to do it)- partly because the Sox like his polished swing and partly because he's out of options and they don't have the choice of shuttling him back to Pawtucket to make room on the active roster anymore. Offensively Youkilis should be pretty productive- at the very least he'll put up better numbers than that other first-base Kevin (who will now provide humor in the clubhouse and at the plate in Baltimore). His biggest plus at the plate is his ability to get on base. In the last two seasons Youkilis combined for just 287 at bats with the sox, but he maintained a .376 on-base percentage. The Sox covet those kind of stats. He also projects to hit 20+ homers in regular at bats, which will be another nice improvement over the power-starved Millar. Defense is a question; Youkilis came up as a third baseman, but he's been practicing at first since last spring and he can't be any worse than Millar in that respect, either. An added plus: his experience at third base means that he can spell Lowell and give lefty JT Snow some starts at first at the same time.
I'll admit, I was one of the many that counted Jason Giambi out after the 2004 season. The former MVP posted terrible numbers, suffered from numerous injuries, and was neck-deep in a steroid scandal that threatened his entire career. Fast-forward to '05 (specifically June '05 and beyond) and suddenly Giambi is back to where the Yankees want him to be and on his way to becoming the American League Comeback Player of the Year. After terrible months of April and May and the threat of being sent back to the minor leagues, Giambi gritted his teeth and went crazy, never looking back until by the end of the season he had posted a .271 average with 32 homeruns (only three of which he had knocked before May 10) and 87 RBI. If he can maintain that momentum into '06, the Yankees will have a hitter in the number six slot of their lineup that would easily be number 3 or 4 elsewhere.

Bench:
J.T. Snow will fill the role in '06 that John Olerud filled last season; namely, he'll be a late inning defensive replacement and get some starts against right-handed pitching. Like Olerud, Snow is known for his spectacular defense at first. Unlike Olerud, Snow never has and never will challenge for a batting title. Last year with the Giants (where he was more of an everyday player than he will be in Boston) he hit .275 with 4 homeruns and 40 RBI. Those numbers are sure to go down as does the number of at bats he gets. The Sox are banking on his defensive prowess (he won six consequtive Gold Gloves between 1995 and 2000) to make up for his offense.
You can also expect slugger David Ortiz to get some starts at first, especially as the Sox move into interleague play mid-season. I don't need to tell you how much of an offensive force Big Papi is (and I plan to do so in my DH section anyway) but I'll just say that last season Ortiz led the league (actually, he led the entire MLB) in RBI with 148, and he placed second in long balls with 47. He's even proven to have a pretty strong arm when he plays defense, but he's been having trouble catching fly balls this spring, according to a chuckling Willie Harris.
In New York, expect to see Andy Phillips give Giambi a break or two over at first. He had a poor showing in his 27 games with the big club last year, but in 75 games at triple-A Columbus, Phillips hit .300 with 22 homeruns and 54 RBI. If Joe Torre can somehow find him some regular at-bats, his major league numbers should definitely improve.
Meanwhile, the Yankees brought back Miguel Cairo to help man the left side of the infield. After his 2004 Yankee season, Cairo went across town to the Mets and batted .251 with 2 homeruns and 19 RBI in 327 at-bats. Those are hardly Yankee caliber numbers, and considering the durability of Rodriguez and shortstop Derek Jeter, don't expect to see Cairo very often in '06.

And the winner is: Do I even need to say? The Yankees are sure to outblast the Sox once again at their corner positions. Unless both Rodriguez and Giambi get hit by busses or some other freak injury affects their performance, the two of them should combine for around 85 homeruns and 225 RBI. The Sox - if they're lucky - will get 45 homers and 140 RBI out of their starters.

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