One thing that I'm fond of doing throughout the season is making comparisons between AL East rivals. I'll start with an analysis of the starting rotations of the Yankees and the Red Sox. I touched on this a bit in my last post, but here I'll go into a bit more detail and analyze each pitcher.
Each of these teams is going into the 2006 season with fairly deep rotations. In fact, as of this post both teams have seven viable starters to fill five spots. For the purposes of this entry, I'll begin with the ace of each team and move down what I project to be the five-man rotation; the final two spots will be referred to as the wildcards. Bear in mind that this is my own opinion on what the rotations of these teams will look like in '06, and by April the situation might be completely different.
ACE (#1 Starter): The Yankees will return veteran Randy Johnson to the top of their rotation in '06. The southpaw had an "off" year in '05, going 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 211 strikeouts. He also led Yank's starters with 225.2 innings pitched. That's a career season for most pitchers, but the Yankees hope that Johnson will show glimmers of '02 in '06. That season with the Diamondbacks, Johnson had a remarkable 24-5 record, sparkling 2.32 ERA and a ridiculous 334 strikeouts. To me, the Big Unit is sitting on the edge of a knife, and one of two things can happen as a result. Either he will pull an Alex Rodriguez and have a huge comeback in his second year in pinstripes, or we will see that the dropoff in his numbers has more to do with his age than with his location. The 42 year old is ancient by MLB standards, and it won't help that his personal catcher John Flaherty with be catching knuckleballs in Boston this season. If Johnson can overcome the pressurized situation in Yankees Stadium, then New York looks to have the most dominant left-hander in the game starting every fifth night.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have two top-of-the-rotation guys to fill the role of ace. However, assuming that he can return to 2004 form, I'm projecting Curt Schilling as the true #1 man in this squad. Yes, he's coming off a horrendous, injury marred 2005 campaign in which he went 8-8 with a huge 5.69 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 93.1 innings pitched. Yes he's 39 years old and a huge comeback will be much tougher at that age. But no pitcher in the major leagues has a better work ethic than Schil, and if he says he's ready to be our ace again, I believe him. History tells us that Schilling is pretty good at bouncing back. In 2002 the big righty went 23-7 with a 3.23 ERA alongside his buddy and now rival Johnson with Arizona. The next year Schilling was limited to 168 innings and came out with a 8-9 record. Then came 2004, that magical year in Red Sox Nation and Curt's big comeback, when he went 21-6-3.26-203 in 226.2 innings. If he stays true to his past, following his poor 2005 season Schilling should be poised to win another 20 games for the Sox this year.
#2 Starter: Formally the ace of the Yankees pitching staff, Mike Mussina was demoted with the acquisition of the Big Unit. Known to be one of the most durable pitchers in baseball as of two years ago, Mussina has failed to reach 200 innings in each of the last two seasons. Age (he's 37) and the health of his arm will be a factor this season. In 2005 Mussina went 13-8-4.41-142 in 179.2 innings. If he can overcome the odds, however, he figures to be a big part of the rotation in New York.
The Sox also have an potential ace filling their #2 slot. Acquired in a huge trade with the Marlins for top prospect Hanley Ramirez, Josh Beckett is a young fireballer with a high ceiling that has already proven himself at the major league level. In 2003 Beckett was the MVP of a young World Series squad that defeated that fearsome Yankees. Last season Beckett went 15-8 with a 3.37 ERA and 166 strikeouts in 178.2 innings. That last number is what has some in Boston worried - he has continually suffered problems with blisters and last season he missed his last few starts because of a sore shoulder. But the medical staff in Boston would lead us to believe that they can handle any blister this side of Derek Lowe, and that the shoulder issue was more precautionary than neccesary. Regardless, Beckett is coming into a situation where the pressure won't be all on him, given the Sox's deep pitching staff, and if he lives up to his potential he'll be Terry Francona's new best friend.
#3 Starter: Here's where the Yankees begin to fall apart a little bit - the bottom half of their rotation. I'm projecting starter number three this year to be Chien Ming Wang, who in his rookie campaign last year went 8-5-4.02-47 in 17 starts (116.1 innings). Yes, those are impressive numbers for a rookie, but who knows if Wang can keep that up in his sophomore showing? Also, given the fact that Wang was indeed the Yankee's third best starter in '05 and he only made 17 starts, that says a lot for a rotation that returns each of its components from last year.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, boast of a number three man that went 13-6-4.57-146 in 191 innings last year. Naysayers will point to Matt Clement's sub-par second half (only 4 of his 13 wins came after the All-Star break), but for goodness sake's the man got his head caved in by a line drive! You come back and post even four wins after that! Still, Clement has a history of sputtering later in the season, but he definitely has the potential to win 17 games in '05 if he can finally prove everyone wrong about his second-half performances. Watch closely though, because with all the trade rumors floating around this winter, we might not even see Clement in Boston for very much longer.
#4 Starter: Carl Pavano was one of the Yankee's prized free agent acquistion last offseason. Remember Carl-lapalooza? The nationwide tour-de-force Pavano took, shopping himself to various contending teams (including the Red Sox)? Well, the Yankees won his huge contract, but in return all they got was a 4-6 record, 4.77 ERA, 56 strikeouts, and months on the disabled list. Can Pavano make a comeback in '06? If so, the Yankees will feature a #4 man that went 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA and 139 strikeouts for the Marlins in '04. If not, then perhaps that was $40 million they should have spent elsewhere.
The Red Sox look to start veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in the number four slot this season. As evidenced by the nearly unlimited contract the front office signed Wakefield to during the '05 season, this is a man the team can count on. Emerging as the ace of last year's staff, Wakefield went 16-12 with a 4.15 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 225.1 innings. He also led the squad with three complete games. The thing about Wakefield is that his knuckleball doesn't have the devastating affect on his shoulder that a hard-thrower's fastball does. Therefore, age is hardly a factor for Tim, and you can expect him to continue baffling hitters with his knuckler in '06. One thing to watch for: Doug Mirabelli, Wakefield's personal catcher of the last four years, will be joining the battery in San Diego in '06. His replacement, John Flaherty, is known for his defensive prowess but may not be the offensive force that Mirabelli was during Wakefield's starts.
#5 Starter: Shawn Chacon had a pretty crazy season in '05. After starting out 1-7 with the Colorado Rockies, Chacon joined the Yankees and went 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA in 79 innings. Many speculate that his improvement can solely be attributed to the change of leagues and batters' unfamiliarity with his style. The Yanks are hoping that it was no fluke, and the he can maintain his momentum in '06. If so, they'll have a quality #5 man for the first time in years; if not, we may not see Chacon in the rotation for very long, as Jaret Wright and Aaron Small will be waiting in the wings to take over for him.
The Red Sox will have a sore time trying to choose their number five guy for '06. That's because Bronson Arroyo has already proven himself capable of posting 14 wins, yet Jonathan Papelbon is a pitcher with a much higher ceiling than Arroyo. After all the dust from spring training has cleared, however, I predict you'll see Arroyo back in his familiar number five slot this season. In 2005 Rockin' Bronson went 14-10 with a 4.51 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 205.1 innings. Arroyo is the type of pitcher that will shutdown lineups for entire games; he nearly pitched a no-hitter early last season and in 2003 he hurled a perfect game for triple-A Pawtucket. Don't be surprised if he makes baseball history this season. Arroyo has proven himself effective out of the bullpen, and if he does make that move you can expect him to be the best long-reliever on the staff.
The Wildcards: Aaron Small put together perhaps the most impressive season of any Yankee's starter last season. A reliever by trade, Small started nine games in New York, pitched in fifteen, and posted a 10-0 record, including a complete game. In 76 innings Small gathered 37 strikeouts and a 3.20 ERA - second only to Chacon in pitchers with nine or more starts. But because he has more experience out of the bullpen, expect him to start the season there and be pulled into the rotation in the event of injury or poor performance. Jaret Wright, meanwhile, is a starter by trade that is expected to remain in the bullpen as a long reliever in '06. The Yankees signed Wright as their fifth starter for a pretty big contract prior to the 2005 season, but the right hander failed to return on their investment, battling injuries and posting a 5-5 record, 6.08 ERA, and 34 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Wright projects to be added insurance for a rotation that is historically prone to injury.
During the '05-'06 offseason, veteran left hander David Wells requested a trade to a west coast team, where he can be closer to home and play in warmer conditions. So far, the Sox have not found a suitable trade for Wells, but in all likelyhood they'll manage something before the end of spring training. If they decide to keep Wells, they'll have one of the best big-game pitchers in the game, a man who went 15-7 last season, with a 4.45 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 184 innings. Like Arroyo, Wells is the type of pitcher that can destory a lineup for an entire game. He has a perfect game in his career and I wouldn't be surprised if he nails another if he doesn't retire first. The other Wildcard in the Sox rotation this season will be Jonathan Papelbon. Last year the rookie impressed the entire organization when he appeared in 17 games (three starts) and posted a 3-1 record, 2.65 ERA, and 35 strikeouts in just 34 innings. He figures to be an extremely valuable piece of the bullpen puzzle, and if anyone in the rotation is sidelined by injury, expect him to prove that he's meant to be a starter.
And the winner is: The Red Sox. They have more of a proven staff coming into the season and have had fewer injury problems than the Yankees. Both clubs are stacked though, and you can expect some great pitcher's duels between the division rivals.
The Rocket Factor: The Astros this season didn't offer Roger Clemens arbitration, effectively making the Rocket a free agent and disqualifying Houston from signing him until May 1. Though Clemens may very well wait that long to make his season debut and stay in his hometown, he has suggested that there are three other teams he would consider signing with: the Rangers, the Yankees, and the Red Sox. Should either of the division rivals land him with a contract, then you can pretty much call the division theirs. Clemens brings with him a career 341-172 record, 3.12 ERA, and a whopping 4502 strikeouts. Should he sign with the Sox, with one win he will surpass Cy Young's all time win record with the team. The Sox seem to be the team most interested in signing Clemens, but frontrunners at this time appear to be the two Texas teams, allowing Clemens to stay close to home and keep a close eye on his son (who is a catcher in the Astro's organization).
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