Red Sox v. Yankees ‘07: Backstop

Red Sox Catchers: 2006 aside, the Red Sox for years now have boasted of one of the most dependable and productive catching duos in the game. Jason Varitek, despite a downfall in his hitting last season, remains the most important aspect of Boston’s pitching staff. This was quite obvious when any sense of good pitching completely fell apart after Varitek hit the disabled list on August 1 and had to undergo knee surgery. Always known to be a pitcher’s catcher who can call a game as good as any other big leaguer around, in 2005 Varitek proved that he was in fact the best all around catcher in the league by taking home both the Gold Glove and the Silver Slugger award. That year he batted .281 with 22 homeruns and 70 RBI, and was the AL starter in the All-Star game. In 2006, however, Varitek saw his average drop to .238 with 12 homers and 55 RBI. Many believe that his participation in the inaugural World Baseball Classic led to his decreased production and late-season breakdown, so if he can respond well to his knee surgery he should be back to his normal self in 2007. Regardless of his hitting, V-Tek will remain the premier game-caller in the league, and he’s always been an outstanding plate-blocker. With a killer rotation and a beefy bullpen to work with, Varitek should lead the pitching staff to drop as much as a run from its collective ERA in 2007.

Mirabelli also suffered an uncharacteristic down year in 2006, but chances are he too will bounce back this season. Previously considered perhaps the best backup catcher in the major leagues, Mirabelli was traded to San Diego before the 2006 season for second baseman Mark Loretta. While trading a backup catcher for a starting second baseman who turned out to be a very dependable number two hitter for the Sox is a move that can be lauded by critics of the front office, scrambling to get Mirabelli back in May and giving up Josh Bard and Cla Meredith (who proved to be stars on the Padre’s roster) is not one of Theo Epstein’s crowning achievements. Mirabelli hit .191 with 6 homers and 25 RBI for the Sox, and his biggest draw - catching mastery over Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball - was nullified while Wakefield spent two long months on the disabled list. Still, Epstein opted to resign Mirabelli to a one-year deal with expectations that Mirabelli will return to his 2004 form when he had career highs in average (.281), homers (9), and RBI (32).

Meanwhile, Epstein may have redeemed himself for the Mirabelli debacle when he made perhaps his best move of the season in August, sending David Wells to the Padres for catching prospect George Kottaras. The Padres got a 43 year-old contract-year pitcher who has knee and back problems, while the Sox received the Padre’s top hitting prospect and immediately upgraded what had been a weak position in the system. Splitting his time between each club’s double-A affiliates, Kottaras batted .255 with 10 homeruns and 50 RBI in 376 at-bats. The Sox also made minor-league deals with two defensive-minded catchers in Alberto Castillo and Kevin Cash. Neither catcher is known for his prowess at the plate, but should they be called up in a time of Boston need, they will be more than effective behind the plate.


Yankees Catchers: New York got somewhat more production from the backstop position than did the Red Sox in 2006. A big part of that is because Jorge Posada, a lifelong Yankee, hit for a .277 average with 23 homeruns and 93 RBI. That rather large RBI number was tops in the league for catchers, but it’s not hard to knock a lot of runs in when you’ve got a middle-of-the-order lineup like the Yankees’ batting in front of you. Still, Posada has been very dependable at the plate since he became the full-time starter in 1998, averaging 21-plus homers and 83 RBI per year and maintaining a career .270 average. He played in 143 games, starting 121 behind the plate last year despite suffering bruises on his elbow and finger, and a strained tendon in his knee. However, he has a tendency to wilt under pressure, as evidenced by his .241 career postseason batting average with 9 homeruns and 31 RBI in 307 at-bats. Defensively, Posada is middle-of-the-pack. He doesn’t have a strong arm and he can let a lot of pitches get by him. He’s also been known to let his defense slip after experiencing a bad at-bat. His defense has improved somewhat over the past few years, but it’s still doesn’t put him in the top ten in the league.

Backing up Posada this year will be career minor-leaguer Will Nieves. Since being taken in the 47th round of the 1995 amateur draft by the San Diego Padres, Nieves has played in just 37 games in the major leagues. Last season for the Yankee’s triple-A Clippers, Nieves hit .259 with 5 homeruns and 34 RBI. He didn’t manage a hit in his six major-league at-bats. The only upside to all of Nieves’ negatives is that Posada will probably catch 80% of New York’s games.

The Yankees don’t have many other options at backstop in their system, though they did make a splash by signing 16 year-old Venezuelan prospect Jesus Montero. It’s unlikely that Montero will see any big-league action in the next few years, but the Yanks intend to make him Posada’s replacement when Jorge retires. For 2007, however, the Yankees will be in big trouble should Posada go down with an injury.


Bottom Line: While Posada may have a slight offensive edge over Varitek, the two don’t even begin to compare defensively. If Posada can score two runs in a game, Varitek can score one and save two with his defense and game-calling. Add that to Boston’s new-found depth at the position and the Yankees’ apparent lack of options, and the Red Sox clearly have the stronger backstop situation for 2007.

There's a new J.D. in town

Sorry Johnny, but your initials will no longer be the ones people think of when they hear "J.D." in reference to the Red Sox outfield. That's because, seven weeks after agreeing in principle to a five year contract with former Dodger J.D. Drew, Boston has finally hammered out all the shoulder-injury technicalities and made the deal official. Watch for my Red Sox v. Yankees '07: Outfield piece in the next few days to see how the two JDs will match up this season.

Red Sox v. Yankees ‘07: Middle Infield

Red Sox Shortstop and Second: The Red Sox, for the third year in a row, will see a complete turnover in the middle-infield to start the 2007 season. The positions have been experiencing the so-called “revolving door” syndrome for years now, but in Julio Lugo and Dustin Pedroia the front office hopes to finally see some multiple-season stability up the middle. After proving himself to be a thorn in the Red Sox side during his three and a half seasons in Tampa Bay (and thus becoming one of the most coveted players in the Theo Epstein era), the Red Sox finally acquired shortstop Julio Lugo this winter and are set to slot him into the leadoff spot. Since his debut with Houston in 2000, Lugo has maintained a .277 average with 68 homeruns and a .340 on-base percentage. Lugo was a rock in the Devil Ray’s lineup, but experienced a drop-off in his performance after his mid-season trade to the Dodgers last year. I find it hard to fault him for this, though, considering he experienced almost no stability after the trade; he was playing with a new team, in a new league, all the way on the west coast, and the Dodgers played him more at second and third base than they did at short. His signing with the Red Sox will put him back in a familiar environment - he’s found a lot of success playing in the AL East and, in particular, at Fenway Park. In fact, in his 115 career at-bats at Fenway, Lugo has hit at a .330 clip with 16 runs scored and a .384 on-base percentage. Lugo is a very athletic shortstop with good speed and some pop - he looks to score a lot of runs out of the leadoff spot for the Sox, and he‘s capable of stealing 30 or more bases depending on how often Terry Francona chooses to give him the green light. His defense isn’t the best in the league, but it’s not anything near the worst, either.

Meanwhile, rookie Dustin Pedroia will try to shake off his unimpressive debut last year and prove that he has what it takes to be an important part of the Red Sox lineup. In 89 at-bats with the Sox Pedroia hit just .191 with two homeruns and seven RBI. However, in his 1094 minor league at-bats previous to his debut with the big club, Pedroia maintained a .305 average with 23 homers and 140 RBI. In 2006 for Pawtucket he hit .305 with 50 RBI and 30 doubles, so clearly he can produce at the plate. It will just be a matter of adjusting to major-league pitching and major-league pressure, which I believe Pedroia is capable of doing. His work ethic and plate discipline translate well into major-league success, and he’s not going to have a ton of pressure batting ninth. As for defense, Pedroia is as good as they come. He has more professional experience at shortstop, but his build and scrappiness make him perfect for the second base role.

Backing up in the middle infield will once again be Alex Cora, who resigned with the Red Sox for two years and $4 million. Cora is one of the better infield backups in recent Sox history, and not because he’s a particularly great bench hitter. He just knows the game of baseball, and he’s extremely consistent in the field. If Pedroia doesn’t produce at second, Francona will be more than happy to start Cora everyday, especially since Alex tends to hit better when he gets consistent at-bats. Even with limited play, Cora usually makes something happen at the plate, making him a good option to back up shortstop and second base.

Yankees Shortstop and Second: The Yankees return two of their most consistent players to the middle infield this season, both of whom took home Silver Slugger awards in 2006. Arguably the best shortstop in the game, Derek Jeter boasts a career .317 average and .388 on-base percentage. Since his Rookie-of-the-Year campaign in 1996, Jeter has averaged 77.5 RBI and almost 17 homeruns per year. His power numbers aren’t the best at the position, but he has a knack for coming up with the big hit when it’s most needed, as evidenced by his career .307 average with runners in scoring position. Jeter stepped up to another level last season, making a serious push for American League MVP while batting .343 with a .417 on-base percentage and knocking in a career-second 97 runs (bested only in 1999 when he had 102 RBI). Derek has only failed to score 100 runs once since his rookie year (2003 - 87), making him a very dangerous bat near the top of an extremely dangerous lineup. Jeter is also one of the most exciting defensive players to watch. A three time Gold Glove winner (including last season), he gets to a ton of balls and has a really strong arm, and he can astound crowds with his acrobatic and sometimes reckless fielding maneuvers. Yet even though he’s never afraid to put his body on the line to make the play, he’s still averaged 151 plus games played every year since ‘96. No matter how many question marks the Yankees have on their roster, Derek Jeter is certainly not one of them.

Over at second the Yanks feature one of the better young infielders in the game in Robinson Cano. In 2006 Cano came in third in the league in batting average behind Jeter and the Twins’ Joe Mauer, hitting at an impressive .342 pace. He also had 15 homeruns and 78 RBI - pretty sweet numbers for a bottom-of-the-order hitter. In all likelihood, Cano will continue to blossom into one of the best second basemen in the league. He made the All-Star team in his sophomore season and was named AL Player of the Month in September. He isn’t as spectacular with the glove as is Jeter, but he may be more reliable, with just 9 errors to Jeter’s 15. Regardless, the two can turn a double-play as good as any tandem in the league.

The Yankee’s backup infielder will be Miguel Cairo once again in 2007. He’s not an incredible bench presence, but he’s decent enough, carrying a .239 average last season with 30 RBI and 13 stolen bases. He’s also capable of playing every infield position, plus some outfield. His versatility is an important factor when it comes to his playing time, considering that Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter aren’t known for taken many days off, and you can be sure Joe Torre will keep Cano in the lineup as often as possible. Cairo will be lucky to gather 200 at-bats this season, but he’ll do an okay job when he’s asked to.

Bottom Line: No question, the Yankees have not only a better middle infield picture than the Red Sox, but probably better than most teams in the league. Derek Jeter is simply incomparable, and Cano is turning out to be another gem formed in the rough of the Yankee farm system. The Sox will be probably see some decent production up the middle, but the Yankees definitely will, and then some.

Stars of the Future, pt. 1: Jeff Natale

This is part one of my interview series "Stars of the Future" where I will speak with some minor leaguers and ask them the hard-hitting questions. Lol. Part One features Jeff Natale, who played at second base last season for the single-A Greenville Drive and was subsequently named the 2006 Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year. To learn more about Natale, check out his page on SoxProspects.com here.

Chris Reardon: You were the Red Sox 2006 Minor League Offensive Player of the Year. What does garnering an award like that mean to you and to your future as a ballplayer?

Jeff Natale: Being the offensive player of the year was a huge honor. It was unbelievable to be presented with such a great achievement. Even though all that was great, this year will be a huge year for me. And I'm already looking forward to the challenges ahead.

CR: Who was your favorite baseball player growing up?

JN: I’ve answered that question a lot lately for some reason and the answer is Derek Jeter. Even though I wasn't a Yankee fan growing up he was always the most fun exciting player to watch especially during the playoffs. You can tell when a player is special and he's by far the most exciting player to watch.

CR: Did you know when you were in grade school that you would end up playing professional baseball?

JN: Actually I always thought that I would end up playing hockey. Growing up hockey was always my favorite sport and it wasn't until about junior year in college when I decided that I wanted to pursue a career in baseball.

CR:Your Myspace account lists people you’d like to meet as Derek Jeter and Mickey Mantle. There’s no denying the greatness of these players and their impact on the game, but do you find that being a Yankees fan is a conflict of interest while playing in the Red Sox system? Ever get in trouble for it from your teammates?

JN: There isn't much talk about everyone's favorite team in the clubhouse. A lot of guys come from a lot of different places and no one could predict that they'd be drafted by the Red Sox. I think everyone in the clubhouse is a big Red Sox fan now.

CR:Your scouting report on SoxProspects.com claims that you do not project as an adequate defensive second baseman, and that you may be converted to the outfield. How do you respond to the negativity about your defense and do you see yourself at another position in the future? Have you ever played in the outfield before?

JN: I also get that question a lot and the answer is I really dont know about playing another position in the future. At Trinity College, I played left field my freshman year, centerfield my sophomore year, centerfield for half my junior year and 2nd base for half my junior year, then 3rd base my entire senior year. So basically this last season was the first time that I had ever played 2nd base consistently. I think my defense has improved 100% since I signed with the Red Sox and I hope it will continue to get better and better. A lot of playing a position is just being comfortable there, and I dont think I got completely comfortable until the 2nd half of the season.

CR:As a minor leaguer, there must be a lot of pressure looking up at the major leaguers and at all the talent ahead of you on the depth chart. How do you handle this pressure?

JN: There’s a huge amount of pressure in any job that your going to have so I guess the answer is Yes. The Red Sox in particular have such a great reputation of putting the best talent on the field each year so its difficult to look at the people ahead of me all the time. I try to concentrate on the things I can control (i.e. my plate appearance, my work ethic, my defense) rather than things I can't control.

CR:How do you feel about Dustin Pedroia playing second base for the Red Sox in 2007? Is he or are you the second baseman of the future?

JN: Dustin is a great player with tons of talent. I'm excited to see him compete at the major league level. I hope that he's going to play very well this year and we’ll see about the future.

CR:What are the Red Sox chances this year? Would you be willing to pick them over the Yankees?

JN: The Red Sox chances are great this year. Anytime you have a pitching staff like they do this year, your going to be really competitive. The offense is going to continue to contribute with guys like manny, DO [David Ortiz], and Varitek in the line-up. As far as the Yankees, they are also a great squad with a ton of depth but their pitching will be a big issue for them this year. I'd be willing to bet on the Red Sox this year.

I want to thank Jeff Natale for all his cooperation. Keep an eye out for more interviews in the future!

Red Sox v. Yankees '07: Corner Infield

Red Sox Third and First: The Sox wisely return two of their most consistent players of 2006 to the corners this season. After his mediocre 2005 season, Mike Lowell was thrown in as an afterthought in the Josh Beckett trade with Florida, but he proved that he was more than capable of bouncing back. A career .273 hitter, Lowell batted .284 in 2006 with 20 homeruns, 47 doubles, and 80 RBI. He also played gold-glove caliber defense, committing just 6 errors in his 153 games at third base. There’s nothing to make me believe he won’t match or improve upon his numbers in the upcoming season.

Meanwhile, in his first full season in the big leagues and at a new position, Kevin Youkilis wowed fans with his performance at first base. Not only did he play sparkling defense with just 5 errors, he also produced at the plate with a .279 average, 13 homeruns, 42 doubles, and a .381 on-base percentage. He hit all over the lineup, and filled nicely in for Coco Crisp at the leadoff spot while Crisp was out with an injury to his finger. Look for him to spend most of 2007 batting behind newly acquired leadoff man Julio Lugo. He’ll always be an on-base machine, and there’s a good chance you’ll see an increase in his power numbers, to boot. Remember, those Fenway fans are screaming “Yooooouuuuk!” not “Booooo!”

Backing up third base will be Youkilis and Alex Cora, one of Terry Francona’s favorite players for his consistency and knowledge of the game. Cora isn’t a huge threat at plate with his .239 average, 1 homerun and 18 RBI in 235 plate appearances, but he knows how to get things done. If you need a bunt or a sacrifice, you can count on Cora. He always plays superior defense. He won’t play that many games at third, as his natural positions are shortstop and second base, but he’ll spell Lowell a few times in the season. You can also expect to see fan favorite David Ortiz play a handful of games at first base, especially during inter-league play. Obviously Big Papi is one of the premier players of the game, and somehow continues to improve every year. Spending most of the season at DH, he’s not the most spectacular defender but he’s not the liability that most people expect him to be, either. Look for utility man Eric Hinske to spend some time at the corners, too. Acquired in August from the Blue Jays, Hinske wowed the Fenway crowd in his debut against the Yankees by hitting four doubles. He ended up hitting .288 with a homerun and 5 RBI for the Sox, bringing his ‘06 totals to .271 with 13 homeruns and 34 RBI.


Yankees Third and First: The Yankees have a few question marks at their corner positions, but I believe they’ll end up getting some good production, at the very least out of third baseman Alex Rodriguez. Many believe A-Rod had an off year in 2006, and by his standards perhaps he did. Having averaged almost 42 homers per year since his first full season with Seattle in 1996 with a career .305 average, Rodriguez hit 35 long balls in ‘06 and batted at a .290 click. He still managed to knock in 121 runs. He also garnered a lot of criticism for his defensive decline, collecting 24 errors at the hot corner. His most infamous performance (and hardest for the fans to forget), however, was at the plate in the 2006 post-season. A-Rod hit a measly .071 with four strikeouts in October, and during his time with the Yankees has just one homerun and 3 RBI during the playoffs. That said, he was the AL Player of the Month in May when he batted .330 with 8 homeruns and 28 RBI. He’s also proven that he can handle the pressure cooker that is New York, winning the American League MVP award with the team in 2005. The fact is that Rodriguez is and always will be one of the premier players in the game. Despite fans clamoring for GM Brian Cashman to trade the third-baseman, A-Rod will once again prove to be an asset for the Yankees at the hot corner.

First base looks to be a platoon situation for the Yankees this year. This winter New York acquired former Red Sox Doug Mientkiewicz, who batted .283 with 4 homeruns and 43 RBI for the Royals last year. The left-hander will see most of his at-bats against right-handed pitchers, and will likely be a common defensive replacement when there’s a left-hander on the mound. Known for his glovework, Mientkiewicz won a gold glove in 2001 and has the major league’s second best fielding percentage (.996, behind Travis Lee) among first basemen since his debut in 1998. The second half of the platoon will be filled either by Andy Phillips, who has been tearing up the Yankee’s farm system for several years now, or Josh Phelps, whom the Yankees acquired in this year’s Rule-5 draft. Phillips spent a good chunk of time with the big club in 2006 but failed to continue with the success he found in the minors, hitting just .240 with 7 homeruns and 29 RBI in 246 at-bats. Phelps was phenomenal in the Tiger’s system last year, batting .308 with 24 homeruns and 90 RBI for Triple-A Toledo. The two will battle for the position during spring training, and may see some competition from Juan Miranda, whom the Yankees acquired as an undrafted free agent this winter. Jason Giambi, like Ortiz, will spend most of the season at DH, but will likely play the field during inter-league play or when another Yankees slugger needs a break from defense. Miguel Cairo resigned with the Bombers this year and will probably spell A-Rod at third during his rare days off.


Bottom Line: The disparity at the corners isn’t as big this year as it was in 2006. The Sox will probably see more production from Youkilis than the Yankees see from Mientkiewicz and Phillips/Phelps, but even after Mike Lowell’s comeback season and Alex Rodriguez’s off-season, A-Rod is still the better hitter. Defensively, the Sox will easily trump the Yankees at the corners, but New York will ultimately see more production at the plate.

Red Sox v. Yankees '07: Starting Rotation

I'll be posting a series of articles that compare the players on my favorite team, the Red Sox, with those on my obligatory least favorite team, the Yankees. I'll go through every position on the teams and decide which team is stronger in that area. I'll try to remain as unbiased and honest as possible. Enjoy!

Red Sox starting rotation: The Red Sox astounded the baseball world this offseason with their astronomical $51.1million bid just for the right to negotiate with superstar Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. Over his eight year career with the Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka went 108-60 with a pretty 2.95 ERA and 1355 strikeouts. Having signed a six year, $52 million contract for the Sox, Dice-K looks to be an important part of Boston’s rotation through the 2012 season. Count on him for 200 innings, and watch for him to win at least 14 games, though his MVP performance in last year’s World Baseball Classic (against mostly major-league hitters, mind you) shows that he’s capable of notching 17 or 18 wins in his rookie year.

For at least the 2007 season, Matsuzaka will be a part of the big-three of powerful twenty-six year olds in the rotation, including Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon. Beckett struggled somewhat through the 2006 season, posting a 5.01ERA (1.16 points above his career average of 3.85), but he still led the Red Sox with his 16 wins. He did allow 36 homeruns, however, and in Fenway Park if he doesn’t learn to keep his fastball away from the middle of the plate he’ll be a severe power threat (the bad kind). Odds are 2006, which wasn’t all bad, was just a year of acclimation to the American League for Beckett and his second season in the AL East will prove more successful. He was the World Series MVP with the Marlins in 2003, and if he can return to his golden days he’s capable of winning 21 games, but you can expect him to win more than 15.

Meanwhile, no pitcher on the Red Sox roster can boast of more successful season than the exuberant Jonathan Papelbon, but that was in a role that he won’t be in for 2007. After proving that he was a better fit for the Sox closer’s role than the much-maligned Keith Foulke, Papelbon went on to save 35 games, demolishing the previous Red Sox rookie saves record previously set by Dick Radatz’s 24 saves in 1962. Along the way he posted miniscule numbers, including a 0.92 ERA and .167 opponent’s batting average, and finished second to Detroit sensation Justin Verlander in the Rookie-of-the-Year voting. If Papelbon’s success out of the bullpen translates into success in the starting rotation (where he pitched for most of his professional career, including his major league debut in ‘05), then you can pretty much count on him winning 15 games.

These three alone make for a pretty successful rotation, but the Red Sox also boast of two proven veterans who know how to win games and eat innings. Curt Schilling will be back for his third and, as he says, final year with the Red Sox. He led Sox starters in 2006 with his 3.97 ERA and 183 strikeouts, and was second to Beckett with 15 wins. Known as one of the hardest workers in baseball, as long as his body holds up Schilling is more than likely to match or improve upon his ‘06 win total.

Then there’s Tim Wakefield, the longest-tenured member of the Red Sox. He had a season to forget in 2006, posting a 7-11 record with a 4.63 ERA in an injured shortened season. If he’s healthy, Wakefield is good for 11 wins or more. Keep in mind that there will be more stability at backstop for Wakefield this year as Doug Mirabelli resigned with the Sox, guaranteeing he’ll be with the team through spring training and the start of the season, unlike last year when he was traded to the Padres.

Waiting in the wings: The Sox have some decent back-up options to fill any rotation holes that might come up during the season because of injuries within the front five. Jon Lester has reportedly recovered from his cancer scare and will be out to prove that the success he found with the Sox in his rookie season was no fluke. Lenny Dinardo, who will be battling for a spot in the bullpen to begin the season, is also capable of starting games, as is fiery setup man Julian Tavarez. Then there’s David Pauley and Davern Hansack, who both impressed in their debut starts last season. The Sox also signed former Mariner Joel Piniero, who appears to have left his better years behind him but may just be a capable long-relief man, spot starter or, as many believe, closer. Last but not least (well, maybe least) is Matt Clement, who is currently on the DL and may or may not ever pitch for the Red Sox again, but has proven in the past that he knows how to win games (see: first half of 2005 season).

Yankees starting rotation: This winter the Bronx bombers said goodbye to their 43 year-old ace Randy Johnson and underachieving Jaret Wright. They also made the winning bid of $26 million for negotiation rights to 27 year old Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers. Igawa was a solid part of the Tiger’s rotation for eight years, but only surpassed 14 wins in 2003, when he notched 20 Ws. Since 1999 Igawa is 86-60; that’s twenty-two wins fewer than Matsuzaka with the same number of losses in the same number of years. Igawa has also been criticized in Japan for his declining performance over the past few years. Add that to the fact that Igawa did not pitch in the WBC and face major-league pitchers as did Dice-K, then you see that the Yankees have a $26 million question mark on their hands. Igawa may do good things in the states, but it’s doubtful. I’d be surprised to see him post more than 12 wins.

It may not be that much of a loss to play Igawa every fifth day, however, what with the Yankees monstrous offense and a couple of proven veterans ahead of him in the rotation. One of those is Mike Mussina, who since his first full season in 1992 has never failed to post at least 11 wins. Boasting a career 239-143 record and 3.63 ERA, Moose went 15-7 last year with 172 strikeouts and a 3.51 ERA. Cleary, this guy is nothing if not consistent. During his time with the Yankees, Mussina failed to start 30 games only once (27 in 2004), but over the last three years he has seen a decline in his innings pitched, which may be a sign of his age catching up to him. Still, at 38 years old Moose still has what it takes to post at least 14 wins, if he stays healthy.

The Yanks also took a look at the past in order to find a new number one starter for their ailing rotation. Whom they found was Andy Pettitte, who was with the Yankees for his first nine years in the bigs, but played the last three seasons for the Houston Astros. Pettitte was stellar in ‘05, but saw somewhat of a decline in his performance last year, going 14-13 with a 4.20 ERA. He did manage to match his career-high of 35 games started, and has always been an innings eater. No question Pettitte will be a worthwhile pickup for the Yanks, and you can look for him to win around 16 games behind New York’s offense.

Next is the pitcher who beat out Mussina and Johnson last season and proved himself to be the ace of a fairly dismal Yankees pitching staff. Chien-Ming Wang tied with Minnesota’s Cy Young winner Johan Santana for the league leading 19 wins. In his two years with the Bombers he is 27-11 with a 3.77 ERA. He’s not a strikeout guy, but his killer sinking fastball is good for plentiful double-plays throughout the season. If he can match his performance from last year, he’ll cruise to 16 wins, and likely post a few more.

I’m tempted to leave it at that, as the fifth spot in the Yankee’s rotation is essentially a giant question mark. It’s assumed that Carl Pavano and his giant contract will fill the spot, but the Yankees picked up some nice pitching talent in the Johnson and Gary Sheffield trades, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pavano gone by mid-season. Since signing his 4 year, $40 million contract after the 2004 season, Pavano has pitched a measly 100 innings for the Yankees, all of which came in the 2005 season. That year he went 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA. His lifetime record is a mediocre 61-64 and 4.27 ERA, and he’s had one great season in his entire career - 2004, leading into his free agency, he posted an 18-8 record and 3.00 ERA for the Florida Marlins. Having not pitched for a year-and-a-half, I doubt Pavano’s ability to get much done this season. If he is healthy, I’ll pencil him in for 10 wins - and that’s being generous.

Waiting in the wings: As I said, the Yankees have plenty of talent ready to pick of any slack in the starting rotation. Phillip Hughes is the most heralded arm in the system, and he went 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA in 21 starts for the double-A Trenton thunder last year. Other prospects who may be ready to see some big-league action are Humberto Sanchez, Sean Henn, and Jeff Karstens. Then there’s setup man Scott Proctor, who has actually been stretching out as a starter this winter and could log a few spot starts before season’s end.

Bottom Line: The Red Sox are the clear winners in the rotation battle. They are more talented, deeper, stronger, and younger than the Yankees staff. The only thing that will stop the Red Sox front five from posting a collective 70 wins will be a rash of injuries like we saw last season. Even still, barring a trade the Sox seem better equipped to handle injuries this year than they did last year, and they’re far more prepared than the Yankees for such a situation. Still, don’t be surprised to see the Yankees make some more moves before winter’s end to help the rotation out.

Wildcard: Just like last year, Roger Clemens has yet to decide what he wants to do for the upcoming season. He has said that if he doesn’t decide to retire, he’ll only pitch for the Astro’s, Yankees, or Red Sox. Of the three, the Sox seem to have the least need for Clemens, but Tom Werner has such a stiffy for the Rocket that you never know what will happen. Whichever team he signs with, and even considering the fact that he’ll likely pitch for only three months, he will be a boon down the stretch. I’m tempted to backtrack and say that he’ll only help out if his age hasn’t caught up to him yet, but in all honesty I believe Clemens is ageless. He’ll post a sub-3.50 ERA no matter where he pitches.