#1 Prospect - Jonathan Papelbon
Scouting Report: Good pitcher's build with a live arm and solid delivery. Fastball has been clocked up to 95 mph, typically hitting the low-90s with great command. Very good slider and changeup, as well as a slurve curveball. All can be thrown for strikes, and Papelbon has improved his consistency with these pitches. Papelbon also added a splitter to his arsenal in the spring of 2005, after some tutoring from Curt Schilling. Projects as a frontline starter.
Papelbon projects as a frontline starter, meaning that when Schilling retires or his contract runs out, Papelbon might have a new job at the top of the Red Sox rotation. That is, of course, if he doesn't get traded before then. He's the only prospect on the list that is pretty much guaranteed to start the season on the 2006 active roster, but whether or not he'll be in the starting rotation is another issue. The Sox have seven starters (six if they finally manage to trade David Wells) to fill five slots, and as it stands the number five slot is Bronson Arroyo's to lose. Still, both Arroyo and Papelbon have proven that they can be dominant out of the bullpen, so just having Papelbon on the roster immediately improves both areas of the pitching staff.
# 2 Prospect - Jon Lester
Scouting Report: Very athletic lefty. 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs sit in the low 90's, top out in the mid-90s, and have good movement. Lester also utilizes an above-average change-up, an 11-to-5 curveball which sits in the low 70s, and in 2005 worked on developing a cutter. Easy delivery motion with good explosion, similar to Andy Pettitte. Power strikeout pitcher, uses his fastball and occasionally his curve as his out pitch. While Lester typically has top notch control, occasionally he will have games where his control of certain pitchers is off. Very hard worker, prepares will for each game. Has also been compared to Mark Mulder. Great pickoff move.
The Sox are blessed to have two starters with very high ceilings in their organization. Just look at Lester's scouting report; with comparisons to Andy Pettitte and Mark Mulder, clearly this kid has what it takes to man the top of a pitching rotation. If things work out for the best, the Sox look to have the next "Big Three" (formally Mulder, Barry Zito, and Tim Hudson of the Oakland Athletics) in Papelbon, Lester, and newly acquired fireballer Josh Beckett. That situation, should it play out, is still a few years down the road. Lester will start this season at triple-A Pawtucket, but there's a good chance you'll see him in Boston long before the roster expansion in September. He was last year's Red Sox Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and he made the Eastern League All-Star team. Don't be surprised if he garners both honors again this year, that is if he doesn't spend most of his time with the big club.
#3 Prospect - Craig Hansen
Scouting Report: Hansen's fastball (the best in the system) has topped out in the high 90s, and he consistently hits the mid-90s. He also possesses an excellent high-80s slider, which also was voted best in the system by Baseball America. A fierce competitor who has an excellent closer mentality. Does not walk many batters. Named "closest to the majors" of all players in the 2005 draft.
The fact that this kid was on the major-league roster at all last season is a huge testament to his ability; he had only been closing for St. John's University just months before! He also swooped in and stole the closing job in Pawtucket from the formerly highly-touted Cla Merideth (who, by the way, dropped severely in the prospect rankings after putting up a startling 27.00 ERA with the Red Sox last season). The rookie impressed with the big club last year, but that was just the beginning. No doubt, if the Sox can resist the temptation to trade him off (his trade value as a closer is tremendous), then this is your closer of the future. He'll definitely join the Red Sox when the roster expands in September, but he could even get here sooner. In the meantime Pawtucket is lucky to have a closer of his caliber on the roster.
#4 Prospect - Dustin Pedroia
Scouting Report: Small infielder had a tremendous career at Arizona State. Average power for a middle infielder, with good bat speed and excellent plate discipline. Loves the game and has fantastic instincts. Plays top-notch defense up the middle, named the 2003 National Defensive Player of the Year. Very scrappy; a great teammate. Moved to second base prior to the start of the 2005 season; Boston hasn't ruled out moving Pedroia back to shortstop.
The cool thing (and fortunate, for him) about Pedroia is his versatility. Cleary the Red Sox's first pick in the 2004 draft has what it takes to be either a starting second baseman or shortstop. The Sox, this season, are deep up the middle with names like Alex Gonzalez, Mark Loretta, Alex Cora, and Tony Graffanino; but expect Graff to be traded, so if any of the other three go down with an injury, their job goes to either Pedroia or Alex Machado - a prospect that you don't hear a lot about, but he impressed the club enough to make the playoff roster last season. Pedroia will get one more season of triple-A under his belt, and then he'll be more than ready to be a major-league contributer by the 2007 season. You never know in a big market like Boston, though, and he might end up suffering the same option-shuffling fate that Kevin Youkilis did for two seasons.
#5 Prospect - Manny Delcarmen
Scouting Report: Boston native always dreamed of playing for the Sox. His career was on the fast track with a mid 90s fastball, and an outstanding curveball - until he injured himself in May 2003. Delcarmen had Tommy John surgery in May 2003, but returned to the mound a year later in May 2004. Post-surgery, Delcarmen's fastball may have actually gained velocity, as he has topped out in the high 90s. Delcarmen has average control, with decent changeup and a very good curve which he uses as his out pitch. Delcarmen's father played in the Phillies Organization.
Last season Delcarmen made an impression on the Red Sox; enough so that he was called up by mid-season to contribute to an ailing bullpen. Now, this offseason the Sox went out and added big names to their relief corps, meaning that Delcarmen, for now, is out of a job. One worry last season was that Delcarmen's out pitch, his curveball, was lying flat and not breaking the way it should. Well in a recent report on mlb.com Delcarmen said that he spent all winter trying to find his curve, and it seems to be going well for him so far this spring. You can't help but hope for big things for this Beantown Boy. As for 2006, he'll start the season in Pawtucket, and he might get called up in case of injury, but his greatest contribution to Boston won't come until September and then on a much more regular basis in 2007.
# 6 Prospect - Jacoby Ellsbury
Scouting Report: Ellsbury was on of the best players in the NCAA in 2005. He is very fast, plays excellent defense, and has shown a great ability to get on base. Decent gap power for a centerfielder who projects as a lead-off hitter. Has often been compared to Johnny Damon. Also said to be a team leader.
Along with Hansen, Ellsbury was the prize of the 2005 draft selection. He still has a long way to go in the organization, but in him the Sox have their centerfielder and leadoff hitter of the future. He proved to be a star in last year's College World Series, and continued to hit well with the low single-A Lowell Spinners afterward. I doubt he'll make an appearance with Boston in 2006, and he may only be called up in September 2007, but after that you can expect him to be a star. As for this year, he'll start the season with the high-A Wilmington Blue Rocks, but he'll probably end up with the Sox's double-A affiliate Portland Sea Dogs before the end of the season.
#7 Prospect - David Murphy
Scouting Report: Murphy is a tall, athletic lefty with a sweet swing. Pulls a lot of pitches, and displays excellent patience at the plate. Loves the game, and displays excellent leadership skills. Needs to work on adding more power. Accurate arm with decent range. Average speed. Injury-plagued 2004 season showed mediocre stats.
He was the Sox's number one draft selection in 2003, and he's been having a little bit of trouble living up to the hype that goes with that kind of status since then. Still, his scouting report says that he shows patience at the plate, which is the kind of discipline the Sox typically love to get out of their hitters. He'll start 2006 as the PawSox's centerfielder, and he may get a callup in September. If not, barring a trade, you'll definitely see him with Boston in 2007.
# 8 Prospect - Brandon Moss
Scouting Report: Athletic outfielder with a good arm. Excellent approach at the plate - good swing with a raw power. Moss is a competitor. He didn't show much at the plate in his first two professional seasons, but put in a good amount of work in the off-season prior to 2004, producing an outstanding 2004 season in all respects.
Moss impressed in winter ball this season, earning him a spot in Pawtucket's right field. If he continues to improve his plate discipline, then the Sox are looking at a great replacement for Trot Nixon (whose contract is up after this season). Whether or not he'll be called up this September depends a lot on his performance throughout the season, but don't be surprised if he does make it. Otherwise he might be a big contributor off the bench in 2007 (I expect the Sox to sign a veteran to a one-year deal to replace Nixon as starter), and as a starter after that.
#9 Prospect - Jed Lowrie
Scouting Report: Excellent fielder with a strong arm and above average range. Above average speed on the basepaths with great power for a middle infielder. Hits equally from both sides of the plate. Smart and athletic.
His scouting report makes him sound like we have the next Alex Rodriguez-esque, five-tool middle infielder on our hands. The fact that he's a switch hitter simply adds to his value (though if the development team notices a strength from either side of the plate, they'll try to get him to stick with that). I'm very excited to see what Lowrie can bring to our team, though I don't expect him to make it up here until September 2007 or later. I just really hope they don't trade him. Lowrie and Pedroia have huge potential to be a talented double play combination that will bring offensive production that's typically uncommon in the middle infield.
#10 Prospect - Clay Buchholz
Scouting Report: Buchholz has a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, curveball, and a circle change. Also played outfield at Angelina College after transferring from McNeese State.
With names like Hansen and Ellsbury floating around the 2005 draft talk, you might be surprised to learn that Buchholz was actually the Sox's #1 pick last year. This kid has an arsenal of major-league caliber pitches. Still, the development team will probably make him figure out which three or four pitches are his strongest, and stick with those. Because he projects as a starter, a position that the Sox are traditionally very deep in at the major- and minor-league levels, he won't appear with the big club for a few years yet. He'll make an impression when he does though, and if he can survive the trading block (unlikely, given his trade value and the aforementioned pitching depth) he'll be a big contributor to the starting rotation in 2009 and beyond.
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