Red Sox starting rotation: The Red Sox astounded the baseball world this offseason with their astronomical $51.1million bid just for the right to negotiate with superstar Japanese hurler
Daisuke Matsuzaka. Over his eight year career with the Seibu Lions, Matsuzaka went 108-60 with a pretty 2.95 ERA and 1355 strikeouts. Having signed a six year, $52 million contract for the Sox, Dice-K looks to be an important part of Boston’s rotation through the 2012 season. Count on him for 200 innings, and watch for him to win at least 14 games, though his MVP performance in last year’s World Baseball Classic (against mostly major-league hitters, mind you) shows that he’s capable of notching 17 or 18 wins in his rookie year.For at least the 2007 season, Matsuzaka will be a part of the big-three of powerful twenty-six year olds in the rotation, including Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon. Beckett struggled somewhat through the 2006 season, posting a 5.01ERA (1.16 points above his career average of 3.85), but he still led the Red Sox with his 16 wins. He did allow 36 homeruns, however, and in Fenway Park if he doesn’t learn to keep his fastball away from the middle of the plate he’ll be a severe power threat (the bad kind). Odds are 2006, which wasn’t all bad, was just a year of acclimation to the American League for Beckett and his second season in the AL East will prove more successful. He was the World Series MVP with the Marlins in 2003, and if he can return to his golden days he’s capable of winning 21 games, but you can expect him to win more than 15.
Meanwhile, no pitcher on the Red Sox roster can boast of more successful season than the exuberant Jonathan Papelbon, but that was in a role that he won’t be in for 2007. After proving that he was a better fit for the Sox closer’s role than the much-maligned Keith Foulke, Papelbon went on to save 35 games, demolishing the previous Red Sox rookie saves record previously set by Dick Radatz’s 24 saves in 1962. Along the way he posted miniscule numbers, including a 0.92 ERA and .167 opponent’s batting average, and finished second to Detroit sensation Justin Verlander in the Rookie-of-the-Year voting. If Papelbon’s success out of the bullpen translates into success in the starting rotation (where he pitched for most of his professional career, including his major league debut in ‘05), then you can pretty much count on him winning 15 games.
These three alone make for a pretty successful rotation, but the Red Sox also boast of two proven veterans who know how to win games and eat innings. Curt Schilling will be back for his third and, as he says, final year with the Red Sox. He led Sox starters in 2006 with his 3.97 ERA and 183 strikeouts, and was second to Beckett with 15 wins. Known as one of the hardest workers in baseball, as long as his body holds up Schilling is more than likely to match or improve upon his ‘06 win total.
Then there’s Tim Wakefield, the longest-tenured member of the Red Sox. He had a season to forget in 2006, posting a 7-11 record with a 4.63 ERA in an injured shortened season. If he’s healthy, Wakefield is good for 11 wins or more. Keep in mind that there will be more stability at backstop for Wakefield this year as Doug Mirabelli resigned with the Sox, guaranteeing he’ll be with the team through spring training and the start of the season, unlike last year when he was traded to the Padres.
Waiting in the wings: The Sox have some decent back-up options to fill any rotation holes that might come up during the season because of injuries within the front five. Jon Lester has reportedly recovered from his cancer scare and will be out to prove that the success he found with the Sox in his rookie season was no fluke. Lenny Dinardo, who will be battling for a spot in the bullpen to begin the season, is also capable of starting games, as is fiery setup man Julian Tavarez. Then there’s David Pauley and Davern Hansack, who both impressed in their debut starts last season. The Sox also signed former Mariner Joel Piniero, who appears to have left his better years behind him but may just be a capable long-relief man, spot starter or, as many believe, closer. Last but not least (well, maybe least) is Matt Clement, who is currently on the DL and may or may not ever pitch for the Red Sox again, but has proven in the past that he knows how to win games (see: first half of 2005 season).
Yankees starting rotation: This winter the Bronx bombers said goodbye to their 43
year-old ace Randy Johnson and underachieving Jaret Wright. They also made the winning bid of $26 million for negotiation rights to 27 year old Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers. Igawa was a solid part of the Tiger’s rotation for eight years, but only surpassed 14 wins in 2003, when he notched 20 Ws. Since 1999 Igawa is 86-60; that’s twenty-two wins fewer than Matsuzaka with the same number of losses in the same number of years. Igawa has also been criticized in Japan for his declining performance over the past few years. Add that to the fact that Igawa did not pitch in the WBC and face major-league pitchers as did Dice-K, then you see that the Yankees have a $26 million question mark on their hands. Igawa may do good things in the states, but it’s doubtful. I’d be surprised to see him post more than 12 wins.It may not be that much of a loss to play Igawa every fifth day, however, what with the Yankees monstrous offense and a couple of proven veterans ahead of him in the rotation. One of those is Mike Mussina, who since his first full season in 1992 has never failed to post at least 11 wins. Boasting a career 239-143 record and 3.63 ERA, Moose went 15-7 last year with 172 strikeouts and a 3.51 ERA. Cleary, this guy is nothing if not consistent. During his time with the Yankees, Mussina failed to start 30 games only once (27 in 2004), but over the last three years he has seen a decline in his innings pitched, which may be a sign of his age catching up to him. Still, at 38 years old Moose still has what it takes to post at least 14 wins, if he stays healthy.
The Yanks also took a look at the past in order to find a new number one starter for their ailing rotation. Whom they found was Andy Pettitte, who was with the Yankees for his first nine years in the bigs, but played the last three seasons for the Houston Astros. Pettitte was stellar in ‘05, but saw somewhat of a decline in his performance last year, going 14-13 with a 4.20 ERA. He did manage to match his career-high of 35 games started, and has always been an innings eater. No question Pettitte will be a worthwhile pickup for the Yanks, and you can look for him to win around 16 games behind New York’s offense.
Next is the pitcher who beat out Mussina and Johnson last season and proved himself to be the ace of a fairly dismal Yankees pitching staff. Chien-Ming Wang tied with Minnesota’s Cy Young winner Johan Santana for the league leading 19 wins. In his two years with the Bombers he is 27-11 with a 3.77 ERA. He’s not a strikeout guy, but his killer sinking fastball is good for plentiful double-plays throughout the season. If he can match his performance from last year, he’ll cruise to 16 wins, and likely post a few more.
I’m tempted to leave it at that, as the fifth spot in the Yankee’s rotation is essentially a giant question mark. It’s assumed that Carl Pavano and his giant contract will fill the spot, but the Yankees picked up some nice pitching talent in the Johnson and Gary Sheffield trades, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pavano gone by mid-season. Since signing his 4 year, $40 million contract after the 2004 season, Pavano has pitched a measly 100 innings for the Yankees, all of which came in the 2005 season. That year he went 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA. His lifetime record is a mediocre 61-64 and 4.27 ERA, and he’s had one great season in his entire career - 2004, leading into his free agency, he posted an 18-8 record and 3.00 ERA for the Florida Marlins. Having not pitched for a year-and-a-half, I doubt Pavano’s ability to get much done this season. If he is healthy, I’ll pencil him in for 10 wins - and that’s being generous.
Waiting in the wings: As I said, the Yankees have plenty of talent ready to pick of any slack in the starting rotation. Phillip Hughes is the most heralded arm in the system, and he went 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA in 21 starts for the double-A Trenton thunder last year. Other prospects who may be ready to see some big-league action are Humberto Sanchez, Sean Henn, and Jeff Karstens. Then there’s setup man Scott Proctor, who has actually been stretching out as a starter this winter and could log a few spot starts before season’s end.
Bottom Line: The Red Sox are the clear winners in the rotation battle. They are more talented, deeper, stronger, and younger than the Yankees staff. The only thing that will stop the Red Sox front five from posting a collective 70 wins will be a rash of injuries like we saw last season. Even still, barring a trade the Sox seem better equipped to handle injuries this year than they did last year, and they’re far more prepared than the Yankees for such a situation. Still, don’t be surprised to see the Yankees make some more moves before winter’s end to help the rotation out.
Wildcard: Just like last year, Roger Clemens has yet to decide what he wants to do for the upcoming season. He has said that if he doesn’t decide to retire, he’ll only pitch for the Astro’s, Yankees, or Red Sox. Of the three, the Sox seem to have the least need for Clemens, but Tom Werner has such a stiffy for the Rocket that you never know what will happen. Whichever team he signs with, and even considering the fact that he’ll likely pitch for only three months, he will be a boon down the stretch. I’m tempted to backtrack and say that he’ll only help out if his age hasn’t caught up to him yet, but in all honesty I believe Clemens is ageless. He’ll post a sub-3.50 ERA no matter where he pitches.
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