Red Sox v. Yankees '07: Overview

Starting Rotation: Despite Papelbon’s move to the bullpen, the Red Sox still have the stronger rotation. Matsuzaka is having a fantastic spring and Tavarez proved himself a capable starter down the stretch in 2006. Schilling and Wakefield are good for a combined 26 wins (at least), and the biggest question mark - Beckett - didn’t lose his talent just because he had a “tough” 2006. The Yankees have to hope Pavano and Pettite are both healthy and committed and that Igawa is ready for the major leagues. Mussina and Wang should continue to shine but they can’t carry the team by themselves.
Winner: Boston Red Sox

Bullpen: The Sox are stronger with Papelbon closing out games, but the rest of the bullpen is still a work in progress. Brendan Donnelly will probably prove to be the go-to setup guy if Timlin can’t prove himself healthy and effective. The Yankees still have Rivera for ninth inning, and the trade for Vizcaino makes for a very talented setup corps with Farnsworth. The Yankees are in a better position to win more close games than the Red Sox in 2006.
Winner: New York Yankees

Lineup: Obviously no team’s offense compares to that of the Yankees. Power threats all down the line (excluding Mientkiewicz) and a few of the most productive hitters in baseball make the Yankees offense simply incomparable. That said, the Sox shouldn’t have as much trouble scoring runs this year with Lugo leading off and Drew offering more protection to Ramirez than anyone else in the lineup could. I’m also expecting offensive bounce-backs by both Coco Crisp and Jason Varitek, meaning the bottom of the order won’t be as impotent as it was in 2006.
Winner: New York Yankees


Defense: The Red Sox took a slight step in the wrong direction by signing shortstop Lugo over Alex Gonzalez, while the Yankees made a slight improvement by acquiring Mientkiewicz to play first. Still, the Sox led the league in fielding percentage last year and aren’t likely to see that performance decrease in the coming season.
Winner: Boston Red Sox

Bench: The three bench players Boston features - Wily Mo Pena, Alex Cora, and Eric Hinske - are some of Francona’s favorite players for their versatility and ability to win games. Melky Cabrera, Miguel Cairo, and Josh Phelps are all good, but don’t offer quite the same level of play as the Boston trio.
Winner: Boston Red Sox


Coaching: The Yankees have a squad made up of a few former managers (Tony Pena, Larry Bowa), and Joe Torre has been to six World Series, winning four of them. Terry Francona has a World Series win of his own, but some freshman on the staff (Luis Alicea, John Farrell, Dave Magadan) have a lot of proving to do before we start handing out accolades.
Winner: New York Yankees

Chemistry: Apparently not a priority for George Steinbrenner or Joe Torre (as they battle their own issues out), the Yankees have all kinds of trouble getting along. A-Rod and Jeter aren’t the friends they used to be, Mussina thinks Pavano is a baby, and Mariano Rivera wants an extension. Meanwhile in Sox camp, things seem to be more light-hearted than usual, as Manny is talking to the media (albeit briefly and never about baseball), players are laughing about their inability to speak Japanese, and the general buzz through the media about Dice-K seems to be energizing the team as a whole. Managing ability aside, Francona seems the more personable coach than Torre anyway. The whole business about Schilling wanting to be re-signed before the season started seems to have been put in the past, and chances are the Sox are going to sign him at some point during or after the season, anyway.
Winner: Boston Red Sox

Overall: Where the Yankees trump the Red Sox, they aren’t doing it by leaps and bounds (except perhaps when it comes to infield offense). Where the Sox trump the Yankees (particularly in the starting rotation), New York barely compares. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Sox haven’t won the division since 1995, but if there were a year to do it, it’s 2007. The Yankees are weakest where the Sox are strongest and Francona and company are going to have to capitalize on that in order to make it to the playoffs after last season’s absence. Overall, I’ll take the Red Sox to win the American League East.