*Update* Cy Young: Beckett making his case

Not too many people believed me when I said that Josh Beckett is going to improve by leaps and bounds in his second year in the American League. Well, the numbers speak for themselves: Beckett has now won each of his first seven starts, giving him the best record in baseball to go along with his tidy little 2.51 ERA (good for fifth in the AL). It seems as though Beckett has settled down after his shaky 2006, putting more trust in himself and in Jason Varitek, and also allowing himself to relax on the mound and not rush his delivery. He still puts the ball over the plate at 97 mph, but he also has much more command and trust in his off-speed pitches, which only makes his heater more effective. Keep an eye on Beckett as the weather (and power bats) heat up; how he manages in the dog days will show just how improved this talented young pitcher is.

*Update* A-Rod for MVP's looking pretty realistic about now, isn't it?

A-Rod's now hit an unprecedented 10 homeruns in his team's first fourteen games, two of which have been walk-off shots. And in the Bronx, I have a feeling people are beginning to dig those #13 jerseys out of the back of their closets. I'm rather fond of this article by ESPN columnist Gene Wojciechowski, which states "[The New York Yankees] are being carried on the previously fragile shoulders of Rodriguez, who is shoving Barry Bonds, Dice-K, the Philadelphia Phillies Phree-fall -- and anyone else to temporary baseball irrelevancy." My favorite part of the ariticle was this side-bar (thanks to Screengrab! for allowing me to capture it), which shows just how offensively potent A-Rod is compared other entire lineups in the major leagues. I know, I know, I'm prattling on about a Yankee, but c'mon! This is unreal, and I've always said I'm a baseball fan first and a Red Sox fan second. Good for A-Rod for shoving it right in the faces of all those doubting fans, and let's hope that he decides to opt of his contract and take over for Mike Lowell in Boston's hot corner next season. ;-)
Source: ESPN.com - COLUMNIST - Wojciechowskie: 'A-Rod Gone Wild!'

MLB Preview '07: MVP Surprise Favorites

In lieu of doing the typical MVP favorites piece filled with names like Pujols, Ortiz, Jeter, and Ryan (who are all but guaranteed to show up on the MVP top ten this year), I've opted instead to choose five players from each league who may not be the first to come to mind when the topic of Most Valuable Player is brought up, but who I'm projecting to fill just that role for their teams and possibly make a run at the title.

American League:

1. 3B Alex Rodriguez (Yankees): Okay, so A-Rod wouldn't be a huge surprise to take the MVP, considering he won the award just two years ago for the second time in his illustrious career. But Rodriguez struggled defensively last season and was weak enough at the plate to see a drop to number eight in the batting order during the 2006 post-season, making him prime for a big come back in 2007. This also may be his last year in pinstripes, as he will have the choice of opting out of his contract with the Yankees at the end of the season. Knowing that this could be a contract year may be enough to motivate A-Rod to 50-plus homers and 130-plus RBI. He's already started off the season as the hottest hitter in the bigs, knocking six long balls in his first seven games of 2007. Voters are sure to take a good long look at the Yankees' third baseman come October.

2. OF/DH Gary Sheffield (Tigers): Detroit already has all the pitching they need to make it deep into the post-season, but the reason they didn't win the World Championship in 2006 was a sudden drop-off in offense. Without making many other changes to the roster, Detroit traded for Sheffield and immediately made a huge impact on their lineup. Though he was injured most of last year, Sheffield is still one of the most feared hitters in the league. Though the baseball writers are supposed to disregard playoff performances in casting their votes for MVP, if Sheffield's bat leads to a championship in Detroit it's going to be hard to argue who the most valuable player in the league really is.

3. 3B Akinori Iwamura (Devil Rays): Hoping to do for Tampa Bay what Ichiro did for Seattle in 2001; that is, take over as the face of the franchise and help the team make an impact in the division. Now, the Mariners won 116 games in Ichiro's rookie year, which is highly unlikely for the Devil Rays. Iwamura shares Suzuki's sweet left-handed swing and slick fielding abilities, so I would be impressed, but not surprised to see the third baseman follow his countryman's lead by taking the Gold Glove, Rookie-of-the-Year, and MVP all in the same season.

4. C Joe Mauer (Twins): Even though his teammate Justin Morneau won the award last season, it is widely held that Mauer was really the most valuable Twin on the roster. Being the first catcher to take the batting title since 1942 really helps his cause in that regard. Everyone knows that playing backstop is the most difficult position on the field, and to prove yourself to be a force at the plate as well as behind it is truly one of the most impressive feats in baseball. If the Twins succeed as they did in 2006, I wouldn't be surprised to see the voters take notice of the Minnesota backstop as well as his teammates.

5. CF Vernon Wells (Blue Jays): Though he did just score a huge contract with Toronto, Wells remains one of the most underrated players in the game. He's right up there with Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran as far as center fielders go, but he plays in the AL East where an impact player is far more important than in the National League. Players from Boston already know better than to try to test Wells' arm on the basepaths.

National League

1. SS Jose Reyes (Mets): Reyes broke out in a big way last season when he hit .300 with 81 RBI and 64 stolen bases, netting himself a handy seventh place in the MVP voting. This guy has everything; five tools, good looks, and a powerful offense behind him. He's already one of the golden boys of Shea Stadium (along with third-baseman David Wright), and looks to be an important spark at the top of the lineup for years to come. He's sure to move up in the voting in 2007.

2. 2B Chase Utley (Phillies): Offensively gifted second-baseman are few and far between, and of those Utley is clearly the best there is. He strikes out a bit too often, but more than makes up for it in RBI and runs scored. If he proves to be a bit more patient at the plate, his on-base percentage could surpass .400 and the voters will be remiss to ignore him.

3. 3B David Wright (Mets): Reyes' teammate who also turned a lot of heads in 2006. He was one of the most productive hitters in the league for the first half of the season, though he slowed down a bit down the stretch. If he can keep his bat for the full season he's capable of 35+ homers and 120 RBI, certainly MVP numbers if I've ever seen them. His quick glove at the hot corner only serves to help his cause.

4. 3B Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals): The best player on the worst team, he'll give the Nats a lot of very productive at-bats and some pretty fine defense at third. He'll face a lot of competition at the hot corner from players like Wright, Scott Rolen, and Aramis Ramirez, but if Zimmerman continues to improve in his second full season in the bigs, there's no telling what he'll be capable of.

5. C Brian McCann (Braves): Mauer's counter-part in the National League, McCann broke out as one of the best offensive catchers in the game last season by hitting .333 with 24 homeruns. No catcher has won the MVP award in the National League since Johnny Bench in 1972, but if there's a modern backstop who can do it, it's certainly McCann.

MLB Preview 2007: Rookie-of-the-Year Favorites

American League:

1. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka (Red Sox): Already a favorite for the Cy Young Award, Matsuzaka is sure to make a tremendous impact in his first year in Major League Baseball. His reputation for greatness may in fact hurt him in this case, though, as voters may opt instead to reward a young player who has come up through the minor leagues. Precedence has varied: Ichiro Suzuki won the award in 2001 but Hideki Matsui lost out to Angel Berroa (who has since fallen off the radar) in 2003.

2. 3B Alex Gordon (Royals): So good, he bumped Kansas City star Mark Teahen into the outfield so he could take over at the hot corner. Having a huge year while surrounded by little talent is a good way to get noticed by the voters. He's not the best defender in the game, and he's not going to have much protection batting fifth in the Royals' slim lineup, but this kid has tons of talent and is going to turn a lot of heads in '07.

3. OF Delmon Young (Devil Rays): Superbly talented, but ill-tempered, Young projects to put up some fantastic numbers for the Devil Rays in his rookie year, but may have some trouble pulling votes if he proves to be a problem in the clubhouse. Great fielder that is capable of going 30-30 while hitting for average.

4. 3B Akinori Iwamura (Devil Rays): Slick fielding infielder out of Japan has put up some pretty big numbers in his carrer in the Nippon Professional League. Like Matsuzaka, Iwamura may have trouble collecting votes because of his previous professional experience, but keep an eye on this guy.

5. RHP Phillip Hughes (Yankees): The most talked about young pitcher in the minor leagues is not starting the season with New York, but you gotta think that the Yankees are going to see some problems in their relatively thing rotation. Chances are Hughes is called up mid-year and makes a good impression as did Chien-Ming Wang a few years ago. If not, look for him as the front-runner for the award in 2008.

National League:

1. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (Padres): The Padres gave up their star second baseman Josh Barfield in order to pick up Kouzmanoff, so he better make an impact on the club in his rookie year. Definitely impressed in his September call-up with the Indians last year, knocking three homers and 11 RBI in just 16 games.

After Kouzmanoff (who played in an American League system last season), I'm not familiar with too many National League rookies. Rather than try to bull my way through this section I decided to link you to the MLB.com prejections, which do the job quite admirably. MLB.com NL Top Rookie Candidates

MLB Preview 2007: CY Young Favorites

American League:

1. Johan Santana (Twins): How can Santana not be the preseason favorite to take the Cy Young award for the third time in four years? This guy could change his name to Pedro MarSouthpaw and nobody would bat an eye. He took the triple crown last season, and still has the most devastating changeup in the league.
2006: 19-6, 2.77 ERA, 245 K

2. Jeremy Bonderman (Tigers): He put up some career numbers last season and is still just 24 years old. This guy has gobs of talent and is still working on improving his repertoire. Watch for him to break out in a big way in 2007.
2006: 14-8, 4.08 ERA, 202 K

3. Daisuke Matsuzaka (Red Sox): Dice-K is ready to make a huge impact in the MLB. He has an arsenal of pitches that he can command and get guys out with. Whether he’s a power-pitcher with finesse, or a finesse-pitcher with power remains to be seen, but this guy is looking a whole lot like Pedro Martinez in his prime.
2006 (Japan): 17-5, 2.13 ERA, 200 K


4. Scott Kazmir (Devil Rays): His chances are hurt by the team he plays for, but Kazmir is one of the best young lefties in the game. If the offense can help him out in the wins column, Kazmir looks to move up in the voting.
2006: 10-8, 3.24 ERA, 163 K

5. John Lackey (Angels): Put up some nice numbers last season, but stumbled a bit down the stretch. He has the stuff to take the prize, but he’s going to have to remain consistent throughout the year to prove to the voters that he’s worth it.
2006: 13-11, 3.56 ERA, 190 K

Dark Horse Candidates: Chien-Ming Wang (Yankees), Justin Verlander (Tigers), Roy Halladay (Blue Jays), Dan Haren (Athletics), C.C. Sabathia (Indians), Erik Bedard (Orioles)

National League:

1. Carlos Zambrano (Cubs): In his contract year with Chicago, Zambrano is sure to put up some big numbers in the coming season. The offense is improved around him, which should help the Cubs in the division and put Zambrano on more of the voters’ radars.
2006: 16-7, 3.41 ERA, 210 K

2. Chris Carpenter (Cardinals): This guy doesn’t need to be put on anyone’s radar. Always a threat to take the Cy Young, Carpenter should make some fantasy owners happy once again in 2007.
2006: 15-8, 3.09 ERA, 184 K

3. Jake Peavy (Padres): He’s still riddled with talent, even if his numbers were down a bit last year. I’m expecting a big bounce back from Peavy in 2007, and considering he plays in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark and division in baseball, he should post some big numbers once again.
2006: 11-14, 4.09 ERA, 215 K

4. Roy Oswalt (Astros): He posted his second straight sub-3.00 ERA last season and has collected 55 wins in the last three years. With the absence of Andy Pettitte and the unknown that is Roger Clemens, Oswalt has proven that he is the ace of the Houston rotation.
2006: 15-8, 2.98 ERA, 166 K



5. Barry Zito (Giants): The move to the National League looks to be favorable for Zito. He isn’t the dominating pitcher he once was, but he can still do a lot for a team to win games. His numbers in the NL West are sure to improve over those in the AL West.
2006 (Oakland): 16-10, 3.83 ERA, 151 K

Dark Horse Candidates: Brandon Webb (Diamondbacks), Jason Schmidt (Dodgers), Aaron Harang (Reds), John Smoltz (Braves), Ben Sheets (Brewers), Derek Lowe (Dodgers), Dontrelle Willis (Marlins)

MLB Preview 2007: Preseason Playoff Picks

Click for a larger image. And yes, I did make this myself so don't go stealing it and calling it yours. I'm the only one crazy enough to take the Reds in the NL Central and to put the Phillies in the World Series, anyway.

MLB Preview 2007: NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: Losing J.D. Drew hurts, but the starting rotation more than makes up for it. By adding Jason Schmidt, the Dodgers now boast of three starters in Schmidt, Derek Lowe, and Brad Penny who have Cy Young stuff and ace potential. Juan Pierre is overrated on offense, and Luis Gonzalez is just over-the-hill, but other than that the lineup is actually looking pretty strong, though it lacks a middle-of-the-order thumper. Keep an eye on Nomar Garciaparra; I have a feeling he’s poised to have an even bigger year than he had in ‘06.

2. San Diego Padres: The division leaders of a year ago made some nice offensive moves (watch for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff to have a big year), but got a bit older in the rotation by adding Greg Maddux and David Wells. Still, Jake Peavy is a perennial Cy Young threat and the bullpen is as strong as ever. The reunion of the Giles brothers makes for a nice story, but not nice enough to help the team take the division.

3. San Francisco Giants: I’m nowhere near convinced Barry Zito is worth $126 million, but he should put up some decent numbers this year. Think about it - he plays in the same area as his old team, and the National League is much easier to pitch in than the American League. Bonds seems healthy, so there’s 30 homers right there, and the rest of the roster is easily solid enough to lock up third place. I like the addition of Bengie Molina behind the plate.

4. Colorado Rockies: If the Todd Helton trade rumors are anything to go by, it seems as if the Rockies are trying to shed the extra weight of some of the huge contracts they’ve signed in the past, which is a good thing. This team had some surprisingly good pitching last season, and while I don’t expect them to be quite as impressive on the mound this year, I do expect the team to be more cohesive in all aspects of the game. It probably won’t be enough to power them very far in the division, however.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks: Honestly, I was tempted to put the Giants in this position, but I just couldn’t bring myself to doubt Big Z that much. True, the D-Backs have the reigning CY Young in Brandon Webb at the top of a rotation that also features Randy Johnson and Livan Hernandez, but I just know that Arizona is going to have serious problems when it comes to offense this year. When Eric Byrnes was your leading homerun hitter at 26, and no team member surpassed 80 RBI last season, you know you’re in trouble scoring runs. Some good pitchers are going to have some low win totals in the desert this year.

MLB Preview 2007: NL Central

1. Cincinnati Reds: I might be the only writer outside of Ohio to pick the lowly Reds to beat out the World Series Champion Cardinals, the Astros (who appeared in the World Series in 2005), and the Cubs (who have done a lot to improve their staff this winter), right? Well, hear me out. The Reds only finished 3.5 games out from the Cardinals last season, and the Cardinals did little to improve their roster this winter. With Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo the two pillars of a very solid rotation, and some punch in the lineup with Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., and Jeff Conine, the Reds appear ready to make a run at the playoffs. Watch for former number one draft pick, recovering drug addict, Rule-5 pickup Josh Hamilton to make a big impact in his rookie year.

2. Chicago Cubs: The single most improved team of any this season, the Cubs are coming into the season with big expectations after landing players like Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Ted Lilly. True, after Carlos Zambrano the rotation lacks a heavy hitter, but guys like Lilly, Jason Marquis, and Mark Prior (if he can stay healthy) should be solid enough to let the offense win plenty of games. And trust me, this Chicago offense is easily the best in the division. Guys like Ramirez, Soriano, and newly healthy Derrek Lee should make quite an impact on the leader boards this season.

3. St. Louis Cardinals: I know they’re the World Champions and everything, but the Cardinals simply depend too much on the strength of a few players to carry the team. After Chris Carpenter, the starting rotation is a pieced together mess. After Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen, the offense is mediocre at best. After Jason Isringhausen, no player makes a huge impact in the bullpen. Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and Jason Marquis certainly weren’t the best pitchers on the market this winter, but losing them to free agency didn’t help St. Louis’ pitching problems any. A repeat for the Cardinals in ‘07 is going to be a tall task in this division.

4. Milwaukee Brewers: This team is itching to make an impact in their division. Every starter in the rotation logged at least 11 wins with his respective team last season (except Ben Sheets, who won six games in 17 injurious starts, but who we all know has enough talent to win 15 or more games if healthy). The bullpen looks strong with Francisco Cordero set to close games out, and the lineup is deadly enough with Prince Fielder, Bill Hall, and Geoff Jenkins. What fascinates me most about this team, though, is the strength of the bench. Guys like Craig Counsell, Tony Graffanino, Kevin Mench, and Laynce Nix are going to do their part to help this club win games.

5. Houston Astros: Just like the Cardinals, this is a recent playoff team that has high expectations but depends too much on the strength of a few guys like Roy Oswalt, Carlos Lee, and Lance Berkman. Their acquisition of Mark Loretta to be used as a utility man makes me a little sad after his nice performance (every day) for the Sox last year, and Jason Jennings is not going to replace Andy Pettitte’s impact in the rotation. That said, the Astros’ playoff hopes do indeed loom on the back of one man, but he’s not even on their roster: Roger Clemens. A gut feeling (wishful thinking?) tells me the Rocket is not going to join his hometown team mid-summer, especially if they’re not doing well in the standings.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates: This is just the little club that couldn’t, isn’t it? They did manage a fifth place coup over the league-worst Chicago Cubs last season, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot for 2007 (or ever). Adam LaRoche is nice addition, but he came at a price (closer Mike Gonzalez). Still, there is some young talent on this team (Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez), and though I’m not expecting it, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see them take fifth or even fourth in the division.

MLB Preview 2007: NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins said a couple weeks ago that the Phillies are the team to beat in the NL East, and I may be one of the few people who believes him. The Phillies have a better starting rotation than the Mets (led by off-season pickup Freddy Garcia) and a better offense than the Braves featuring names like Chase Utley, Rollins, and the inimitable incumbent MVP Ryan Howard. I’m expecting big things from this team that hasn’t done many big things in a long time.

2. New York Mets: They still have the strongest offense in the National League, and probably improved it with the addition of Moises Alou. This team returns a remarkable three players who finished in the top ten in MVP voting (Carlos Beltran #4, Jose Reyes #7, David Wright #9). The pitching staff isn’t where it could be with all that payroll money as New York missed out on some big names like Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt. On the strength of the position players alone, I’ll put this team in the Wild Card.

3. Atlanta Braves: I like the rotation packed with names like John Smoltz and Tim Hudson (and a Mike Hampton that may be returning from his elbow injury sooner than originally thought), but this team seems to have lost the winning spirit that it possessed (at least during the regular season) for a decade and a half before last season. The problem is, the division has improved by leaps and bounds around Atlanta, and the Braves have mingled right around the status quo. Watch for Andruw Jones (in his contract year) to be traded mid-season - and remember that Boston has shown interest in the center fielder in the past.

4. Florida Marlins: This is still a young and talented team for sure, but somehow they don’t excite me as much as they did last year (maybe it has something to do with the departure of 2006 manager Joe Girardi). The team was made up of mostly rookies last season, so how many of those players are going to go through sophomore slumps in 2007? They do still have perennial MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera manning third base, and Dontrelle Willis leading a very talented young rotation, but this team is looking up at a very tough division. Getting Jorge Julio to close out games will help, but not enough.

5. Washington Nationals: I view the Nationals in the same light as I do the Royals in the American League Central; basically, an afterthought in a division that is sure to pummel them into the ground. Like the Royals, the Nats have one young player who is sure to bring a lot of smiles to people’s faces in Ryan Zimmerman, but not much else going for them. The entire roster seems like a work-in-progress (especially the rotation), and that’s just not going to cut it in this division.

MLB Preview 2007: AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Hopefully for LA, ace Bartolo Colon will be healthy this year. He is just a season removed from his Cy Young campaign in 2005, and he has enough talent to top a very strong rotation. Add that to one of the best bullpens in baseball, and the Angels are looking every bit the division leader they are meant to be. The addition of Gary Matthews Jr. was probably over-hyped after his career 2006, but this team relies much more on pitching than on offense.

2. Texas Rangers: I gotta be crazy to take Texas over Oakland, right? Well, I don’t know. There are a lot of question marks on this squad, but if some of them pan out (namely returns to dominance from Eric Gagne and Sammy Sosa) then this is a team that may surprise a lot of people in 2007. They still have one of the best young infields in the game, led by first baseman Mark Teixeira, and their rotation is decent, if not spectacular.

3. Oakland Athletics: Rarely do I pick offense over pitching, but I’m putting the Rangers above the Athletics because of the massive difference in offense. Sure, the A’s have a pitching staff as good as any in the major leagues, but they’re going to have a fun time scoring runs to back it up. The off-season acquisition of Mike Piazza (who will spend his first season in the American League and as a DH) might work out well, but he’s not going to provide nearly the offensive punch of Frank Thomas, whom Oakland lost to the Blue Jays.

4. Seattle Mariners: Say goodbye to Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle fans. The man wants to win ballgames, and with all his talent who can blame him? He’ll be gone after the season if the Mariners don’t prove themselves playoff-worthy, which is going to be a tough task after trading Jamie Moyer to the Phillies and losing “ace” Gil Meche to free agency. Young Felix Hernandez (12-14, 4.52 ERA) heads a makeshift starting staff with names like Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Weaver, and Miguel Batista. You’d have to see some huge years from some mediocre players in order for Seattle to do much damage in the AL West.

MLB Preview 2007: AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers: They stunned the entire baseball world last season by leading the Central for most of the year and finishing up with a Wild Card berth and a World Series appearance. The addition of Gary Sheffield should boost an offense that stumbled at the end of the year (though I’m not entirely sure that he was worth all the young pitching they gave up for him), and the starting rotation and bullpen is still as strong as it was last year, led by Rookie-of-the-Year starter Justin Verlander and flame-throwing setup man Joel Zumaya.

2. Minnesota Twins: Even though young phenom Francisco Liriano is on the shelf for the year, the Twins still boast of the reining AL Cy Young and MVP in Johan Santana and Justin Morneau. Santana may in fact be the best pitcher in the game today, having won the Cy Young in two of the last three seasons and taken the pitcher’s triple crown in 2006. The bullpen is strong, the offense is there, and this talented team has the makings of a playoff contender if they can take the Wild Card.

3. Cleveland Indians: This team has a very strong offense led by monster slugger Travis Hafner and rounded out with the likes of Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez. The rotation is nothing to laugh at either with names like C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee. The central division may be a bit tough for the Indians to overcome in 2007, but that’s what everyone said about the Tigers a year ago (myself included).

4. Chicago White Sox: Since their monster 2005 season, the Sox have done little to improve upon what made them so successful that year - the starting rotation. In fact, Chicago parted ways with two very talented starters in Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy this off-season. The Red Sox learned last year that you can never have enough starters, and it looks like the White Sox may learn the same lesson in 2007.

5. Kansas City Royals: In years past they’ve been referred to as a triple-A team that plays against major leaguers. That may not be the case in 2007, as the Royals have done a bit to improve their roster. Still, Gil Meche is not exactly the ace Kansas City needs him to be, and Octavio Dotel is coming off Tommy John surgery and put up a 10.80 ERA in 14 appearances for the Yankees last year. The emergence of Mark Teahen will be about the only thing Royals fans have to cheer for in the coming season.